SunSirs: China Rapeseed Meal Market Trading Within a Range

According to data from SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,394 RMB/tonne on August 3 and 2,386 RMB/tonne on August 7, representing a decline of 0.33%.

Supply side: In the short term, arrivals of imported rapeseed have not yet peaked; raw material supplies for crushing plants remain constrained, limiting the increase in rapeseed meal output. Overall inventory levels are low compared to the same period in previous years, providing tangible support for spot prices. However, with significant volumes of Canadian rapeseed expected to arrive between late August and September, the market is already pricing in this anticipated increase in supply, which caps the potential for price gains.

Demand side: The market is currently in the peak season for aquaculture feed usage, and this essential demand is underpinning the price floor for rapeseed meal. Downstream feed enterprises are limiting purchases to immediate needs; buying activity contracts noticeably after price spikes, as there is little incentive for proactive restocking. Ample supplies of soybean meal are limiting demand for rapeseed meal, while the pull from the livestock and poultry feed sectors remains weak.

In the short term, low inventory levels and essential demand from the aquaculture sector are reinforcing the price floor, resulting in a market characterized by range-bound fluctuations. With limited willingness among downstream buyers to chase higher prices—compounded by expectations of ample future supply—spot prices tend to face downward pressure after any spike. In the medium term, if rapeseed arrivals materialize as expected, the combination of falling costs, increased supply, and the seasonal tapering of aquaculture demand could shift the market toward oversupply, creating downside risk for rapeseed meal prices.

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