SunSirs: Rebar and Wire Rod Prices Consolidated at Low Levels, Awaiting the Combined Impact of Policy Measures and Production Cuts in July

Price trends

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, prices for wire rods and rebar fluctuated downward in July. By the end of the month, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at 3,040 RMB/ton, down 2.39% from the beginning of the month, while the average price of HPB300 high-speed wire rod was 3,272.5 RMB/ton, down 1.58%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic construction steel market in July 2026 continued the weak trend observed since June, characterized overall by low-level fluctuation with reduced trading volume and a slight downward shift in price levels. Prices for rebar and wire rod fluctuated repeatedly near their yearly lows amidst sluggish trading activity, reflecting typical off-season market conditions throughout the month.

In terms of the monthly trend, the month can be broadly divided into two phases: during the first half (early to mid-July), rebar prices fluctuated within a narrow range of 3,050–3,100 yuan, dipping briefly to around 3,085.5 RMB/ton in mid-July—a period characterized by a stalemate where prices struggled to either fall further or rally. In the second half (late July), the price center shifted slightly lower, with rebar touching 3,070 RMB/ton on July 30, a level approaching the year's low.

In the futures market, the benchmark rebar contract (2610) traded primarily within the 3,050–3,120 RMB/ton range throughout the month, maintaining a slight premium over spot prices; this indicates that market sentiment was marginally more optimistic than the spot market, though it lacked clear directional momentum for a breakout. Regarding trading activity, the theme of "weak fundamentals" persisted all month. Traders generally adhered to low-inventory strategies, while end-user procurement was largely limited to immediate needs; speculative demand emerged sporadically but lacked sustainability. Nationwide trading volumes for construction steel saw a significant year-on-year decline, highlighting the pronounced dampening effect of the off-season on demand.

Factors affecting price

According to data from SunSirs, both the weekly production and total inventory of wire rods and rebar declined in July.

Regarding inventory: Since the start of July, social inventories have continued to accumulate, with stocks of construction steel rising to 8.2681 million tonnes. The trend of inventory buildup during the off-season remains unchanged, and current high inventory levels exert significant downward pressure on prices; if steel mills fail to sufficiently curtail production, inventories in July could see a year-on-year increase of nearly one million tonnes, forcing prices to fall further.

Regarding demand: July falls within the traditional off-season for construction—characterized by high temperatures and frequent rainfall—limiting the release of end-user steel demand. However, market sentiment found a psychological floor of support in late July, driven by growing expectations for pro-growth policies following key meetings. Factors underpinning this medium- to long-term outlook included anticipated improvements in infrastructure project funding—spurred by the accelerated issuance of special-purpose bonds—and the renovation of 115,000 aging residential communities mandated under the "15th Five-Year Plan" (which is expected to generate an additional annual demand of approximately 10 million tonnes of steel for urban renewal).

Regarding supply, the scale of production cuts by steel mills throughout July failed to develop into a sustained trend; the pattern of fluctuating output meant that the supply side provided only limited support for prices. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate across 247 steel mills remained high—above 90%—with average daily molten iron output holding steady above 2.4 million tonnes; the extent of the production contraction was far from sufficient to alter the supply-demand landscape.

Market outlook

In summary, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the construction steel market in July 2026 will experience low-level, low-volume fluctuations, with the price centers for rebar and wire rod edging downward as the market struggles to balance "cost support" against "high inventory pressure" and "weak current realities" against "policy expectations." In the short term, steel prices are highly likely to continue fluctuating at low levels through August, with a directional breakout awaiting a catalyst. In the medium term, the period from late August to September represents a critical window for determining market direction; the interplay between the intensity of policy measures and the extent of supply contraction will determine whether steel prices undergo a periodic rebound and recovery or experience a secondary dip to clear out excess supply. Market participants are advised to closely monitor policy signals at the end of July and developments regarding production cuts by steel mills; maintaining a strategy of low inventory and rapid turnover remains a prudent choice until a clear trend emerges.

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