SunSirs: Weekly Fertilizer Market Analysis, Mid-late July 2026

Synthetic Ammonia: This week, the domestic synthetic ammonia market started with regional price adjustments and then moved into a weak operation. Prices in each region fluctuated flexibly based on regional price gaps and changes in supply and demand sentiment within the regions. In the late period of last week, with the successive resumption of maintenance devices in regions such as Shaanxi and Shanxi, low-priced ammonia once again impacted the northern market. Coupled with the fact that the planned maintenance devices in regions such as Shandong had not yet been implemented, prices in the northern region dropped significantly in a linked manner from last weekend to the beginning of this week. However, Shandong still had production cuts to be implemented, and prices had mostly been supported at a high level earlier. But as regional price gaps widened, prices also began to decline in a linked manner in the middle and late stages. In the later period, with prices further hitting bottom and the planned maintenance and production reduction devices implemented one after another, the sentiment of low-price shipments improved. Nevertheless, considering that low-priced ammonia was still circulating in the market, the overall adjustment range was limited, and the market remained dominated by game and wait-and-see.

Urea: This week, the domestic urea market experienced a decline followed by a rise, with prices consolidating in a range. Some prices were adjusted by 10-30 RMB per ton, and the market trading atmosphere remained weak. As of Thursday this week, the ex-factory price reference for small and medium-grained urea in major regions was 1610-1760 RMB per ton. The daily output of urea fluctuated in a narrow range of 214,000 to 219,000 tons this week, which was about 20,000 tons higher than the daily output in the same period last year. The concentrated maintenance of plants during the off-season could not change the loose supply pattern of domestic urea. Domestic trade demand continued to shrink, and downstream enterprises restocked on demand at low prices. The supply of goods flowed to a small amount of agricultural demand and compound fertilizer factories, and most of the restocking was driven by traders looking to bottom out in the phased market outlook. Exports: The pace of domestic urea exports has accelerated recently, providing obvious positive support for large-grained urea (especially primary granulation). In addition, rumors about the issuance of the second batch of urea export quotas have emerged in recent days, which has supported urea futures and market sentiment.

Monoammonium Phosphate: The domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained a stable and flat trend this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East persist, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. The market is worried about the subsequent limited crude oil supply, which will compress the domestic sulfur output. Meanwhile, the supply of goods at ports continues to decrease, pushing sulfur prices to rise at a high level, and the cost side remains under high pressure. Downstream demand remains weak; the market demand for the autumn season is advancing slowly, and end-users have a clear resistance to high-priced monoammonium phosphate, leading to cautious procurement. Enterprises continue to fulfill previous orders with no obvious price changes. Market transactions are sluggish and unstable, and most market participants hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is reported that the current mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powder monoammonium phosphate in Hubei is around 4,400-4,450 RMB per ton, and the mainstream delivered quotation in Shandong is around 4,500-4,550 RMB per ton, with actual transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. In the short term, attention will be paid to the price trend of raw materials, changes in downstream demand and policy news. It is expected that the domestic monoammonium phosphate market will continue to move sideways and remain stable.

Diammonium Phosphate: The domestic diammonium phosphate market maintained a stalemate and consolidation this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continued to escalate, causing obstacles to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic sulfur holders had a strong mentality of supporting prices and being reluctant to sell, leading to a rise in prices at high levels and continued pressure on the cost side; the promotion of the downstream autumn market was slow, demand remained sluggish, compound fertilizer factories mostly maintained low-level operation, and the willingness to purchase was generally low. Enterprises focused on delivering pending orders before shipment, there were no obvious changes in prices, the overall market trading atmosphere was in a stalemate, and the wait-and-see sentiment was still strong. It is reported that at present, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of 64% diammonium phosphate in Hubei area is around 4,800-4,850 RMB/ton, and the mainstream delivery-out price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Shandong area is around 4,900-4,980 RMB/ton, with actual transactions mainly based on negotiation. Pay close attention to the price trend of raw materials, changes in downstream demand and policy news in the short term, and it is expected that the domestic diammonium phosphate market will run in a flat and consolidated manner.

Potassium Chloride: The domestic price center of potassium chloride continued to move down this week, and the overall transaction performance was flat. For domestic potassium, the supply remained relatively stable. Affected by the impact of imported potassium market conditions, high-end quotations have declined. The market price of 60% crystal is 3,100-3,260 RMB/ton, and the high-end price dropped by 90 RMB/ton compared with last week. Imported potassium is under pressure to move forward, the port inventory has been at a high level for a long time, and the supply of goods is abundant. Traders have strong demands for payment collection, generally offer discounts to actively promote orders, and the negotiation space has further expanded. The mainstream quotation of 62% white potassium is 3,150-3,430 RMB/ton, and the mainstream quotation of 60% Laotian potassium is 3,150-3,200 RMB/ton, mainly based on one-to-one negotiation. The border trade market also weakened simultaneously, the arrival at the ports was stable, but terminal purchases failed to follow up effectively. The price of 62% white crystal is referenced at 3,050-3,100 RMB/ton, a sharp drop compared with last week. Even though the port prices have certain price advantages, it is still difficult to increase the market transaction volume. The downstream is in the traditional off-season for chemical fertilizers. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and Mannheim potassium sulfate enterprises remained at a low level, the consumption of raw materials was limited, and the demand side was obviously insufficiently supported. Pessimism spread in the market, and the market trend was easy to fall but hard to rise.

Potassium Sulfate: This week, the domestic potassium sulfate market maintained an overall stable but slightly weak trend, with a strong atmosphere of stalemate. For processed potassium sulfate, support remains on the cost side. The price of raw material sulfuric acid remains high, and Mannheim enterprises have long been under loss pressure, with plant operating rates remaining at low levels. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is limited room for a sharp decline in the market. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises maintained low-load operation, with no centralized stockpiling operations, only a small amount of rigid demand for restocking, and few new orders. At the same time, the decline in potassium nitrate prices has formed a negative impact on the potassium sulfate market, further exacerbating the market's wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall transaction performance is light. At present, the mainstream quotation of 52% powder from Mannheim is 4,300-4,500 RMB per ton, and there is a certain room for negotiation in actual transactions. For resource-based potassium sulfate, market supply is still relatively tight, and most prices are stable and wait-and-see. The mainstream arrival price of 50% powder in Qinghai is 3,800-3,850 RMB per ton, unchanged from last week, and mainly negotiated on a one-by-one basis.

Compound Fertilizer: The domestic compound fertilizer market maintained a range-bound trend this week, with limited price fluctuations and sluggish market transactions. Price references: 45% sulfur-based (14:16:15/3*15) 3,400-3,600 RMB/ton, 45% chlorine-based (3*15) 2,850-3,000 RMB/ton, 45% (25-13-7) 2,850-3,050 RMB/ton, 42% (17-20-5) 2,900-3,200 RMB/ton. Raw material urea prices fluctuated and declined, with mixed price movements in individual regions. High sulfur prices kept ammonium phosphate quotations firm, while potash fertilizer prices edged lower. The cost side of compound fertilizers still provided support, quotations for high-phosphorus formulas remained at previous highs, and high-end chlorine-based supplies decreased. Downstream demand remained weak. Although advance orders for autumn wheat fertilizer have started, distributors generally adopt a strategy of low inventory and fast turnover, with low willingness for bulk restocking and only small-scale replenishment based on actual demand. Most factories still face inventory pressure; large-scale enterprises have reduced operating rates of their plants, while some small and medium-sized enterprises only operate one production line. The market supply side shrank, and the average operating rate dropped slightly. Overall, the domestic compound fertilizer market saw low activity this week, with all parties adopting a wait-and-see attitude. In the later period, attention should be paid to raw material price adjustments and the progress of advance orders for autumn fertilizers.

Sulfur: This week, the domestic sulfur market maintained a notable high and fluctuating operation. The situation in the Middle East further escalated, and the concentrated tradable goods at ports prompted goods holders to hold back supplies and push up prices continuously. However, terminal factories mostly purchased on demand, resulting in low new order transaction volumes. Additionally, with the successive arrival of previous shipments at ports, the inventory of sulfur at various domestic ports has increased. Consequently, short-position traders entered the market cautiously, and the capital side provided insufficient stimulus to the sulfur market. This week, the negotiated price of imported bulk sulfur in the Yangtze River coastal area, the main domestic sulfur trade zone, remained around 9,200 RMB per ton. Domestic sulfur producers had normal sales volume. Supported by the escalating Middle East situation and terminal replenishment on demand, the tender prices of most sulfur producers in Shandong, Northeast China, and Northwest China remained firm. Among them, the tender price of liquid sulfur in Shandong reached a high of 9,300-9,400 RMB per ton. Although it declined slightly compared to the first half of the week, the average price still rose by 200 RMB per ton compared to last week. The subsequent focus will be on the evolution of the Middle East situation. If the situation continues to escalate, concerns that limited crude oil supply will lead to a continued decline in output of domestic sulfur producers and a tightening sulfur supply will drive the sulfur market to rise further. If the situation eases again, given the limited terminal demand and the lack of capital stimulus, the possibility of a fluctuating decline in the domestic sulfur market remains relatively high. Therefore, a stalemate and wait-and-see attitude will dominate the domestic sulfur market in the short term.

Sulfuric acid: The domestic sulfuric acid market sentiment turned weak this week, with prices falling at high levels in some regions. The market sentiment in Jiangxi continued to be weak. Major manufacturers set relatively high prices in the early stage, leading to great cost pressure for downstream users, which significantly reduced their purchasing enthusiasm, and the acid price was lowered. In Hubei, some units of major manufacturers are still under maintenance, but the inflow of resources from surrounding areas such as Jiangxi, Anhui and Henan has effectively filled the supply gap, making the market supply relatively sufficient. In addition, the continuous decline of Jiangxi's acid price has exerted transmission pressure on Hubei, and major manufacturers cut their road transportation prices. At present, the mainstream ex-works price of 98% smelting acid in Hubei is around 1810-1870 RMB per ton. Affected by the impact of low-priced external goods, acid plants in Zhejiang have weakened their willingness to support prices. To speed up inventory clearance, major manufacturers lowered their acid prices. At present, the mainstream ex-works price of 98% smelting acid in Zhejiang is around 1680-1740 RMB per ton. Downstream users in Hunan have become more cautious about purchasing high-priced sulfuric acid. In addition, affected by the decline in acid prices in surrounding areas such as Hubei and Jiangxi, the outward shipment of goods in the region was hindered, the shipment pace of local manufacturers slowed down, and the acid price was lowered. At present, the mainstream ex-works price of 98% smelting acid in Hunan is around 1680-1730 RMB per ton. Manufacturers in Yunfu, Guangdong set relatively high acid prices in the early stage, and the acid price was lowered due to the significant weakening of the surrounding market sentiment. At present, the mainstream ex-works price of 98% ore acid in Guangdong is around 1840-1860 RMB per ton. In Yunnan, downstream titanium dioxide and calcium hydrogen phosphate industries are under cost pressure, some units have suspended production or cut output, leading to weakened demand for sulfuric acid. The shipment situation of local acid plants has significantly weakened, inventory pressure is gradually emerging, and the acid price was lowered. At present, the mainstream ex-works price of 98% smelting acid in Yunnan is around 1630-1710 RMB per ton.

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