SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Primarily Fluctuated with an Upward Bias Last Week (July 20-24)

Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices have risen slightly in the near term. As of July 24, the daily average spot price for 304/2B stainless steel sheets (specifications: 1.0 x 1219 x 2438 mm; tolerance: 0.91 mm) stood at 13,483.33 RMB/ton, marking a 0.43% increase from the beginning of the week and a 12.16% rise year-on-year.

According to the price spread analysis tool from SunSirs, nickel and stainless steel prices have followed similar trends, showing slight increases recently.

Market analysis

Last week, total stainless steel inventories stood at 1.099 million tonnes; cold-rolled inventories rose, while hot-rolled inventories fell.

Regarding raw materials: Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources clarified that it would not broadly increase RKAB quotas, dashing earlier expectations of a looser policy and confirming the trend of tightening ore supplies; CIF prices for saprolite ore remained stable. In the Philippines, ore prices were generally weak but steady, with CIF quotes at 45 RMB/wet tonne for 1.3% grade and 56 RMB/wet tonne for 1.4% grade. As for nickel pig iron (NPI), quotes for high-grade (12%-14%) NPI stood at 1,160 RMB per nickel unit (tax-inclusive, landed); while prices remained firm due to cost support from the ore side, market trading was sluggish with significant divergence between buyers and sellers. Negotiating margins differed between high-grade and medium-grade NPI, and the price spread between the two grades narrowed slightly.

Supply and Demand: Overall supply remains ample; production schedules declined in June but rebounded in July, with signs of tightening emerging in the 300-series segment. In June, stainless steel mills produced 3.5332 million tonnes of crude steel, a month-on-month decrease of 283,100 tonnes (down 7.42%) and a year-on-year increase of 7.34%. Projected crude steel production for July stands at 3.5694 million tonnes, up 1.02% month-on-month and 11.17% year-on-year. Amid the traditional July off-season, purchasing in sectors such as home appliances, kitchen and bathroom fixtures, and decoration is limited to essential needs; a sluggish real estate market is weighing on construction steel demand, while marginal support from infrastructure investment remains limited.

Market Outlook

Overall, the tightening of Indonesian ore supplies is providing support for steel prices, while South Korea's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is dampening export expectations. Demand for stainless steel remains weak due to the off-season, and ferrochrome costs continue to act as a drag; meanwhile, 300-series inventories have shifted to a slight accumulation, limiting upside potential. In the short term, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a firm undertone.

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