SunSirs: Analysis of the Impact of June 2026 Steel Production Data

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in June 2026, China's crude steel output was 83.67 million tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year; pig iron output was 71.99 million tonnes, down 0.9%; and steel product output was 126.56 million tonnes, remaining flat year-on-year. From January to June, China's crude steel output totaled 499.95 million tonnes, down 3.0% year-on-year; pig iron output was 426.64 million tonnes, down 2.8%; and steel product output was 718.78 million tonnes, down 0.9%.

Analysis and Commentary

Iron Ore

Domestic pig iron production fell by 0.9% year-on-year in June, with a cumulative decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year. Demand from blast furnace operations has weakened, resulting in a relatively loose supply-demand balance for iron ore; consequently, both spot and futures prices are under pressure—a moderately bearish factor.

Scrap Steel

In June, domestic crude steel production saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while pig iron production fell by 0.9%. This indicates an increased proportion of scrap steel usage in steelmaking, thereby strengthening demand support for scrap and favoring price trends—a moderately bullish factor.

Rebar

Domestic steel output in June remained flat year-on-year, while cumulative output for the first half of the year fell by 0.9%. There is no significant upward pressure on rebar supply, providing slight support for spot and futures prices; this is a mildly positive factor.

Coiled Rebar

Domestic steel output in June remained flat year-on-year, while cumulative output for the first half of the year fell by 0.9%. Supply-side pressure for coiled rebar has eased compared to the same period last year, offering slight price support; this is a mildly positive factor.

Wire Rod

Domestic steel output in June remained flat year-on-year, while cumulative output for the first half of the year fell by 0.9%. There is no significant oversupply pressure for wire rod, which slightly favors price trends; this is a mildly positive factor.

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