SunSirs: Domestic Demand for Autumn Potash Fertilizer Has Not Yet Ramped Up

According to Agricultural Materials Guide, the potassium chloride market remained stable last week, though trading activity was sluggish. Domestic potash production is currently recovering, with output and shipment volumes remaining low; however, Zangge Potash postponed its summer maintenance from July to August, which eased the supply tightness. The official delivered price for Qinghai 60% powdered/crystalline potassium chloride is around RMB 3,100 per ton, with mainstream market prices hovering around RMB3,300. Low operating rates among manufacturers and continued tight supplies are providing some price support. Last week, port inventories of imported potash stood at approximately 3 million tons—an increase of 200,000 tons month-on-month and about 1.1 million tons year-on-year. Prices for port-side 62% white potassium chloride ranged from RMB 3,150 to 3,450; the lower end represents the guidance price, while transactions at the high end are becoming increasingly difficult, leaving prices generally negotiable. Prices for port-side 60% coarse red granular potassium chloride ranged from RMB 3,300 to 3,450 ; the market has temporarily stabilized due to limited demand. Reports indicate that while imports via the Manzhouli border crossing were suspended in July, shipments continued to arrive; sales were moderate, and transaction prices were negotiable. The price for 62% white potassium chloride held steady at RMB3,150. Last week, domestic potassium sulfate prices remained stable, though prices for resource-based potassium sulfate saw a slight uptick. The operating rate for processed potassium sulfate stood at approximately 40%—a slight decline driven by sluggish sales and cost pressures. Ex-factory prices for processed 52% fully water-soluble powdered potassium sulfate ranged from 4,300 to 4,350 yuan; manufacturers are facing significant strain due to rising sulfuric acid prices and mounting cost pressures. Operating rates for resource-based potassium sulfate have dropped to low levels; Salt Lake Luoke is currently undergoing summer maintenance, and other producers have also begun their respective maintenance periods. Currently, the delivered price for 50% powdered potassium sulfate is around 3,900 yuan, with prices rising slightly due to tight supply.

Overall, demand for autumn fertilizers has yet to ramp up significantly, and procurement of potassium raw materials by compound fertilizer producers remains weak. Trading in the potassium sulfate and potassium nitrate markets is sluggish, industry operating rates remain low, and there is currently no large-scale restocking activity from downstream sectors.

Industry analysts suggest that the outlook for potassium fertilizers lacks strong support; downstream procurement expectations are weak, and port arrivals and inventory levels remain high. There are no immediate positive catalysts to boost the market, and prices show no signs of recovery. Regarding potassium chloride, manufacturers are strongly resisting price drops, limiting the scope for downward adjustments. Potassium sulfate prices are constrained by raw material costs and profit margins are under pressure; even if prices fall, the decline is likely to be gradual and incremental, with the market overall maintaining a trend of weak, slow decline.

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