SunSirs: Lead Prices Exhibited a Trend of Unidirectional Decline and Weak, Fluctuating Movement in June

Price trends

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic market for 1# lead ingots fluctuated at low levels in June 2026; the average domestic market price stood at 16,500 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 15,955 RMB/ton at the end, marking a monthly decline of 3.30%.

On June 29, the SunSirs Lead Index stood at 97.83, down 0.28 points from the previous day; this represents a 27.00% decline from the cycle high of 134.01 points (recorded on November 29, 2016) and a 31.09% rise from the cycle low of 74.63 points (recorded on March 19, 2015). (Note: The cycle spans from September 1, 2011, to the present.)

In June, the lead ingot market exhibited a pattern of unidirectional decline and weak, fluctuating performance. Throughout the month, lead prices remained flat only on June 1 and trended downward thereafter; although a brief stabilization and rebound occurred between June 13 and 16, the recovery lacked momentum and failed to reverse the downward trend.

Market analysis

The supply side was experiencing a threefold contraction: tight ore supplies, losses in secondary lead production, and unfavorable import economics.

Lead concentrate remains in short supply; domestic treatment charges hold at a low of 200 RMB/ton of contained metal, while import treatment charges are deeply inverted at -165 USD per dry tonne. Primary lead producers have begun their monthly maintenance cycles, causing operating rates to dip slightly, whereas secondary lead producers are generally operating at a loss, with utilization rates remaining below 30%. An inverted SHFE/LME price ratio has closed the import window for refined lead, hindering the inflow of overseas supplies.

The demand side coincided with the traditional mid-year consumption off-season.

The lead-acid battery market has entered a slack period; replacement demand for electric two-wheelers has tapered off, and growth in automotive starter batteries remains sluggish. Downstream battery manufacturers are holding high levels of finished-goods inventory and are aligning production with sales—limiting procurement to immediate needs—resulting in lackluster trading of spot orders.

Significant divergence existed between domestic and overseas inventory trends.

Domestic social inventories of lead ingots continue to decline slowly, with low stock levels providing a floor for prices; however, LME inventories remain near historical highs of 300,000 tonnes, and the weakness of overseas markets continues to limit the extent of the rebound in domestic prices.

Market outlook

Looking ahead to July, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes remain the primary factor weighing on the market from a macro perspective. On the fundamentals, the shortage of lead concentrate and the unprofitability of recycled lead production are unlikely to reverse in the short term, providing continued cost support. Lead prices are expected to maintain a pattern of weak, range-bound fluctuation, with a projected trading range of 15,800-16,300 RMB/ton; attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support on the downside, while an upside breakout will require signs of a recovery in macro sentiment or a seasonal improvement in demand.

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