SunSirs: The Domestic Calcium Carbide Market Continued Its Overall Downward Trend in June

Throughout June, the domestic calcium carbide market continued its overall downward trend, with price levels shifting significantly lower; the market remained notably weak, trading was sluggish, and industry profit margins continued to contract. The primary drivers were weakening downstream demand during the off-season and relatively ample market supply. This supply-demand imbalance, compounded by a confluence of bearish factors, pushed calcium carbide prices into a continuous decline from the start of the month, with no signs of a significant rebound.

At the beginning of June, the domestic market price for calcium carbide stood at 2,480 RMB/ton; by June 30, it had fallen to 2,380 RMB/ton, marking a cumulative monthly decline of 100 RMB/ton—a drop of 4.03%. The decline was even more pronounced in key production regions; Wuhai, which serves as a price barometer for the industry, saw its mainstream quote drop to 2,150 RMB/ton by month-end—a sharp decrease of 350 RMB/ton (over 14%)—bringing prices close to their lowest level of the year.

Overall, prices showed a trend of steady decline: they fell rapidly in the first ten days of the month, and while the rate of decline narrowed during the middle ten days, the market remained weak; a slight rebound occurred in the final ten days. Prices fell in tandem across all regions, regional price differentials gradually narrowed, and the market as a whole exhibited a consistently weak trend.

Demand Side: Continued Downstream Weakness and Sluggish Purchasing Interest

PVC is the primary downstream market for calcium carbide. June marks the traditional off-season for maintenance; with multiple production units undergoing shutdowns for servicing, the overall operating rate has declined, leading to a sharp drop in essential demand for calcium carbide. Meanwhile, demand for PVC-based construction materials and piping remains sluggish. Faced with inventory backlogs and profit margin pressures, enterprises have continued to scale back operations and reduce output, further dampening upstream demand for calcium carbide.

Other downstream sectors, such as BDO, are also characterized by loose supply-demand balances and low operating rates, failing to offset the decline in PVC demand. Downstream enterprises are generally purchasing on an as-needed basis rather than engaging in bulk stockpiling, resulting in overall low market trading activity.

Supply Side: Operating Rates Remain High; Supplies Are Relatively Ample

In contrast to sluggish demand, the overall supply of calcium carbide in June was ample. Although some enterprises slightly reduced production due to losses, the industry's operating base remained high; by late June, the domestic operating rate for calcium carbide furnaces still stood at 65.94%. Against the backdrop of a sharp contraction in essential demand, the market faced an overall surplus, highlighting the pressure of the supply-demand imbalance.

The continued release of previously added capacity ensured sufficient overall industry output. Increased supplies from integrated facilities entering the merchant market—combined with abundant circulating stock—further exacerbated the oversupply situation and continued to suppress calcium carbide prices.

The implementation of new safety regulations for hazardous chemicals in June led to significantly tighter transport oversight, resulting in reduced market transport capacity and rising logistics costs. These factors squeezed corporate profits while simultaneously aggravating regional supply-demand mismatches and hindering the flow of goods; this further dampened market sentiment and drove prices downward.

Market outlook

According to SunSirs, the calcium carbide market is unlikely to shake off its weak trend in the short term. July marks a peak period for concentrated maintenance across the PVC industry, and downstream essential demand continues to soften; meanwhile, there are no plans for large-scale reductions in calcium carbide supply. Consequently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists, and prices are highly likely to remain under downward pressure. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the industry is in an adjustment phase characterized by overcapacity and sluggish demand; a market recovery hinges on the resumption of downstream plant operations and a rebound in end-user demand. In the near term, the industry is expected to operate with low profit margins and experience weak, fluctuating performance.

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