SunSirs: China Live Pig Prices Halt Decline and Recover Slightly in June

According to data from SunSirs, domestic prices for three-way crossbred live pigs fluctuated while bottoming out throughout June 2024, eventually halting their decline and recovering slightly by the end of the month. The average price was 9.58 RMB/kg on June 1 and 9.67 RMB/kg on June 30, marking a monthly increase of 0.94%.

As June began, rising temperatures across the country further dampened demand in the terminal meat market. Meanwhile, policies continued to drive the reduction of domestic live pig production capacity, and large-scale enterprises proceeded with marketings. With supply remaining ample and the pressure of a "strong supply, weak demand" dynamic persisting, domestic pig prices generally continued to fluctuate at low levels. As of June 27, pig prices had seen a slight net decline of 1.15% for the month.

Towards the end of the month, the pace of marketings slowed as some enterprises completed their sales targets, leading to a slight decrease in supply. Concurrently, a growing reluctance among producers to sell—driven by a desire to hold out for better prices—shifted the supply-demand balance, pushing domestic pig prices to halt their decline and recover slightly.

Domestic corn prices trended weakly with fluctuations in June, falling by 0.86% over the month. As pig prices recovered slightly after halting their decline, the domestic pig-to-grain price ratio followed a similar pattern: drifting downward for most of the month before rebounding slightly to around 4.2:1 by month-end. Overall, the live pig farming industry remained in a state of deep loss.

SunSirs analysts believe that the shift in supply and demand caused pig prices to rebound in some regions at the end of June, supported by producers' increasing reluctance to sell at low prices; consequently, domestic pig prices are expected to retain some room for recovery in early July. However, looking at the broader picture, live pig inventories remain high, and policies will continue to drive capacity reduction. Coupled with rising temperatures and the onset of summer holidays for schools and universities, the imbalance of strong supply and weak demand is expected to intensify again. Therefore, domestic pig prices are projected to return to a pattern of fluctuating at low levels during the second half of July.

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