SunSirs: China Releases May Rare Earth Import/Export Data; Domestic Light Rare Earth Prices Saw Slight Gains Yesterday

I. Key Official Rare Earth Import/Export Data for May 2026 (General Administration of Customs)

According to rare earth import/export statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on June 9, data for May 2026 reveals a decline in export volume, a sharp contraction in import volume, and divergent supply-demand structures for raw materials in domestic and overseas markets:

Export Data

In May, the total volume of rare earth exports nationwide was 5,490.4 tons—down 6.4% year-on-year but up slightly by 3.42% month-on-month. The export value for the month was RMB430 million—a sharp year-on-year increase of 230.77%, though down slightly by 2.27% month-on-month.

Cumulative exports from January to May totaled 25,378 tons (up 2.2% year-on-year), with a total value of RMB1.69 billion (up 40% year-on-year).

Analysis of Data Trends: While export volumes declined year-on-year, export value surged dramatically. This was primarily driven by strict export controls on medium-to-heavy rare earths (such as dysprosium and terbium), forcing overseas buyers to accept high prices to meet essential demand; meanwhile, exports of standard light rare earth products contracted slightly, resulting in a significant divergence between volume and price trends.

Import Data

In May, the total volume of rare earth imports was 6,770.2 tons—a sharp year-on-year decline of 42.1% and a month-on-month drop of 22.9%. The import value was 810 million yuan—a steep year-on-year fall of 48.41% and a month-on-month decline of 35.2%.

Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 47,628 tons (down 2.8% year-on-year), with a total value of RMB7.08 billion (down 36% year-on-year). Core Logic of Import-Export Structure

Sharp Decline in Imports: Supply disruptions for overseas raw rare earth ore and slower-than-expected mining progress abroad, combined with ample existing stockpiles at domestic smelters, led to a voluntary reduction in overseas ore purchases in May. my country holds the world's largest smelting and separation capacity, with annual raw ore imports far exceeding exports of finished rare earth products; in May, imports totaled 6,770 tons while exports were only 5,490 tons, maintaining the pattern of reliance on overseas sources for raw materials.

Export Volume Drop and Price Hike: The Ministry of Commerce fully implemented its export control framework for dual-use rare earth items, and Customs launched a full-chain traceability declaration system on July 1. "Grey market" supplies—previously exported indirectly via third countries—were completely eliminated, and exports of defense-related rare earths to Japan and the US dropped to near-zero levels. Overseas buyers with urgent needs were forced to pay higher prices for compliant supplies, directly driving up the value of exports.

II. Domestic Rare Earth Spot Market Price Performance on June 30 (Baotou Rare Earth Exchange Benchmark)

On June 30, the rare earth spot market showed a pattern of slight gains for light rare earths, sideways fluctuation for medium-to-heavy rare earths, and divergent trading activity; overall, prices fluctuated within a narrow range with no significant unilateral surges or drops.

Benchmark Prices for Major Categories (on the day)

Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) Oxide: Average price of 741,200 RMB/ton, up 2,100 RMB/ton for the day; Pr-Nd Metal at 902,600 RMB/ton, up 2,400 RMB/ton. Low-priced circulating stock tightened, and traders showed a strong willingness to hold firm on prices.

Medium-to-Heavy Rare Earths: Dysprosium Oxide averaged 1,407,500 RMB/ton, down slightly by 700 RMB/ton; Terbium Oxide stood at 6,454,400 RMB/ton, up marginally by 100 RMB/ton. Downstream procurement for medium-to-heavy rare earths remained sluggish, with a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment. Current Status of Spot Market Transactions

Supply Side: Domestic rare earth mining and smelting/separation are subject to strict annual total volume controls. Coupled with environmental inspections across various regions and production restrictions due to high temperatures, the availability of low-priced spot cargo continues to dwindle, providing a price floor. While May exports saw a year-on-year decline—leading to a slight rise in domestic circulating supply—manufacturers show no willingness to offload stock at low prices.

Demand Side: Downstream permanent magnet material manufacturers are in a traditional off-season; production schedules for new energy vehicles and wind power motors remain stable with no incremental growth. Enterprises are limiting procurement to essential replenishment needs and show little interest in large-scale stockpiling. Market activity is dominated by low-ball inquiries, and there is insufficient demand to sustain significant price hikes.

Overall Transaction Characteristics: Trading activity among merchants has picked up, yet downstream end-user procurement remains sluggish. The spot market is locked in a fluctuating pattern defined by "supply-side support but no demand-side pull."

In the short term, downstream demand remains weak due to the off-season, and magnet manufacturers are not engaging in bulk restocking. Even if policies or data provide positive signals, the physical market lacks the demand to drive prices higher; consequently, with price support relying solely on tightened supply, a significant surge is unlikely.

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