SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Upward Overall in June

Trend Analysis

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, the price of caustic soda trended upward overall this month. The average market price was 620 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 669 RMB/ton at the end, representing a 7.9% increase, though it was down 20.07% year-on-year.

On June 28, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 738 points—unchanged from the previous day; this figure is 65.32% lower than the cycle high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and 4.38% higher than the cycle low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, caustic soda prices trended upward overall this month. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda hovered around 650–690 RMB/ton. Prices in Zhejiang remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan ranging from 760 to 820 RMB/ton. Prices in Inner Mongolia consolidated, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at approximately 1,900–1,950 RMB/ton (on a 100% concentration basis). Early in the month, producers in northern and central Shandong maintained active shipments; a recent decline in inventories provided some price support. In the downstream alumina sector, a plant in Shanxi faced risks of production cuts or shutdowns due to issues with its red mud storage facility, fueling bullish market sentiment and supporting spot prices; downstream alumina producers showed strong purchasing interest. Towards the end of the month, maintenance at chlor-alkali plants led to lower operating rates and favorable inventory trends, while active stockpiling by downstream alumina manufacturers provided solid support for caustic soda prices. On the bearish side, however, inventory accumulation at caustic soda plants and persistently sluggish demand from non-alumina downstream sectors—characterized by hand-to-mouth purchasing and a lack of positive drivers—placed downward pressure on the market.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices are currently trending weakly. While domestic downstream alumina producers are actively taking delivery at favorable purchase prices—helping to reduce inventory levels at caustic soda plants and provide price support—demand from non-aluminum sectors remains lackluster. Given this tug-of-war between supply and demand, caustic soda prices are expected to consolidate, with the specific trajectory depending on downstream market demand.

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