SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Were Consolidating Last Week (June 22-26)

Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, caustic soda prices traded sideways last week. The market average price remained at 670 RMB/ton from the beginning to the end of the week, representing a year-on-year decline of 20.14%.

On June 25, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 741 points—down 8 points from the previous day, down 65.18% from the cycle high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021), and up 4.81% from the cycle low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, caustic soda prices remained relatively stable last week. Prices in Shandong rose, with mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at approximately 610-690 RMB/ton. Prices in Zhejiang remained steady, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan at around 760-820 RMB/ton. Prices in Inner Mongolia consolidated, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at approximately 1,900-1,950 RMB/ton (on a 100% concentration basis). Market sentiment was mixed last week.

Bullish factors: Scheduled maintenance at chlor-alkali plants is expected to continue, leading to lower operating rates and a favorable impact on inventory levels; meanwhile, downstream alumina producers are actively stocking up, providing solid support for caustic soda prices.

Bearish factors: Inventories at caustic soda plants are accumulating, and demand from non-alumina downstream sectors remains sluggish—with purchasing largely limited to immediate needs and no signs of improvement—placing downward pressure on the market.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices trended weakly last week. While recent procurement by the domestic downstream alumina sector has been robust—supported by favorable alumina purchase prices and a decline in caustic soda producers' inventories—demand from non-alumina enterprises remains lackluster, resulting in a tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, caustic soda prices are expected to consolidate, with the specific trajectory depending on downstream market demand.

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