SunSirs: Aluminum Export Prosperity in China

The relevant person in charge of the surveyed aluminum enterprises said that relying on the complete industrial chain and stable supply capacity in China, overseas orders are expected to maintain an expansionary trend. The global demand for aluminum in the new energy track is on the rise in the long run, and the slow pace of the new electrolytic aluminum capacity in overseas adds to the positive trend of the industry's supply and demand pattern, and the aluminum industry is expected to welcome a new cycle of prosperity.

After more than a year of continuous rise, in June 2026, the LME (London Metal Exchange) 3-month aluminum price touched a high of $3,787.5 per ton during the day, setting a new high in nearly 4 years; the China futures market's Shanghai aluminum also showed strength, with the main contract price fluctuating around the 24,000 RMB per ton psychological level.

China aluminum product exports have continued to increase due to the expansion of global downstream consumption demand, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and other factors. This has effectively filled the global supply gap, and the widening of the price difference between China and foreign markets has also opened up profit margins for aluminum companies. According to the General Administration of Customs, from January to April 2026, China exported a total of 2.053 million tons of aluminum and aluminum alloys, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; in April alone, exports reached 5.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, setting a new monthly export high in the past year.

The relevant person in charge of the surveyed aluminum enterprises said that relying on the complete industrial chain and stable supply capacity in China, overseas orders are expected to maintain an expansionary trend. The global demand for aluminum in the new energy track is on the rise in the long run, and the slow pace of the new electrolytic aluminum capacity in overseas adds to the positive trend of the industry's supply and demand pattern, and the aluminum industry is expected to welcome a new cycle of prosperity.

Significantly increased overseas orders; production capacity utilization is at a high level.

With the stable supply capability at home, the company has maintained a steady growth in its international orders. Since March this year, the growth momentum of overseas business has become more obvious. At present, the frequency of foreign customer visits and business negotiations has increased significantly," said a relevant person in charge of Mingtai Aluminum Industry, headquartered in Gongyi, Henan. Mingtai Aluminum Industry is one of the leaders in the China aluminum plate, strip and foil export industry. The person in charge said that over the years, the company has made forward-looking arrangements for overseas production capacity. The Korean production base now has a capacity of 1.2 million tons and is fully ordered and booming in production and sales. At the same time, the company has built a full closed-loop renewable aluminum grade application industry chain of "waste aluminum recovery - smelting regeneration - deep processing", with a production capacity of more than 1 million tons of renewable aluminum grade application. Its low-carbon attribute provides super strong competitiveness for product exports. The carbon neutrality policy and the implementation of overseas carbon tariffs have provided sustained competitiveness for the company's overseas business.

As an upstream of aluminum, the production enterprises of electrolytic aluminum also feel the strong demand from downstream obviously.

"Although China primary aluminum direct exports are restricted, downstream processing enterprises widely use aluminum materials in new energy fields such as power batteries and energy storage, and terminal demand continues to rise. The company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate is also currently at a high level," said a relevant person in charge of Shenhua Shares. Due to factors such as the growth of new energy demand, the difficulty of overseas supply to meet expectations, the aluminum market prosperity continues to climb, and orders for the company's aluminum foil factory are now fully scheduled.

Strong prices and robust demand have kept profit levels high in the aluminum industry. In the first quarter of 2026, the high-end industrial aluminum alloy producer and winery achieved a year-on-year increase of 104.65% in net profit attributable to shareholders and a year-on-year increase of 160.02% in net profit after non-recurring items, far exceeding the 36.82% year-on-year increase in revenue.

The company said the growth was mainly attributed to the synchronous growth of its new energy vehicle business and electronic consumer business, product structure optimization driving up gross margins, and a rise in business orders leading to a continuous increase in the capacity utilization rate.

The data from Zhongchuang Information also shows that in May 2026, the average profit per ton in China's electrolytic aluminum industry has reached about 8,300 RMB.

"Amid the overall high operation of aluminum prices, due to the weakness of alumina and electricity prices, the average cost of refined aluminum is still declining," said Liu Peiyang, an analyst on the non-ferrous metals team at ZhongRMB Futures. In the recently concluded month of May, the profit margin for China refined aluminum expanded to 8,413 RMB per ton, representing an average year-on-year profit increase of 126.4%. Calculated based on monthly average prices, 100% of China refined aluminum production capacity turned profitable in May. Furthermore, bolstered by the substantial price gap between China and international aluminum prices, aluminum export profit margins have stayed above 3,000 RMB per ton, resulting in highly lucrative profit levels across the industry.

China and foreign price differences reach historical highs; export profit margins expand

In the interview, industry insiders mentioned more frequently that the widening of the price difference between China and foreign aluminum is opening a two-way channel for enterprises to generate profits through exports.

At the beginning of June, the LME aluminum price broke through the high point of $3,700/ton, while the China spot aluminum price mainstream range was between $24,000/ton and $24,500/ton, and the overseas aluminum price was stronger than the Shanghai aluminum price.

"The recent sharp rise in international aluminum prices and the significant expansion of export profit margins have been driving factors for the continuous improvement in the aluminum export situation in recent months," said the person in charge of Mingtai Aluminum Industry, adding that the current global downstream consumption demand for aluminum continues to expand, and the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted regional supply, among other factors. As a global core aluminum production and processing base, China is becoming a key force in making up for the global supply gap.

Meng Xiang, an aluminum analyst at Fubao Aluminum of Zhongtian Information, told reporters that the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have affected more than 2.5 million tons of aluminum production capacity, and the recovery cycle is between 3 and 12 months. At the same time, LME aluminum inventories have fallen to more than 3.2 million tons, the lowest level in nearly 20 years. Tight overseas resources have led to an increase in China aluminum demand in the international market, and the improvement in the export of aluminum products has also reduced the pressure on China aluminum inventories.

"In addition to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, incidents such as the suspension of production at Mozal Aluminium in Africa have further exacerbated the global shortage of aluminum supply," Liu Peiyang said. According to a report from the World Metal Statistics Bureau (WBMS), the global primary aluminum supply deficit reached 3.637 million tons in the first quarter of 2026. Transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have risen, heightening overseas market concerns over aluminum supply security. The LME aluminum cash-to-three-month premium has climbed to nearly 100 US dollars per ton, Japan's third-quarter spot premium has risen, and premiums in Europe and the United States have kept growing. The persistent rigid supply gap overseas has provided strong support for LME aluminum prices. Amid tight overseas aluminum ingot supplies and elevated spot premiums, aluminum semi-finished products have helped offset overseas aluminum shortages, while also acting as a key pillar for China demand and driving inventory drawdowns.

Persistent overseas demand offers hope for a cyclical upswing in the aluminum industry.

Even if there are disturbances at the macro level, many in the aluminum industry believe that the fundamentals of overseas aluminum electrolysis are still strong, and the trend of aluminum prices is expected to remain strong, and China aluminum exports are still expected to maintain a growth trend.

"The recovery cycle for overseas aluminum supply is long and affected by energy supply, new production capacity may not meet expectations, and China primary aluminum production capacity is close to the limit. From a long-term perspective, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall." Mi Yanbin said that the uncertainty of macro sentiment is still pressing the spot market. On the demand side, the demand for restocking in Europe and the United States is still acceptable, and the use of aluminum in automotive lightweighting, power and energy storage construction has increased; the infrastructure and power demand in "Belt and Road" countries and regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa are rigid, and overseas demand has a certain support.

He said that the aluminum price in the next three months may show a rebound after pressure, with limited downside. After a comprehensive assessment of the macro and industrial game, it is expected that the aluminum price may rise after fluctuating in the second half of the year, with limited downside. The mainstream trading range of aluminum price may be between 23,500 RMB/ton and 25,500 RMB/ton, and the low point is still expected to be difficult to break through 23,000 RMB/ton.

Liu Peiyang also mentioned that China core aluminum export enterprises have reported that orders in June and July have maintained a growth trend, with some leading enterprises experiencing a month-on-month growth rate of 15%-20%. However, the overall production scheduling in the industry has not yet returned to the highest level in 2024. On the overseas front, aluminum processing enterprises generally have low raw material inventories, but there are still essential demands in the construction, power, and electronic industries. Under a conservative scenario, the annual aluminum export is expected to reach 60 million tons, exceeding the 2025 level. In terms of prices, the aluminum market in June is expected to continue the pattern of external strength and internal weakness, with China aluminum prices maintaining a high-level range.

Faced with strong demand and considerable profits, China aluminum companies are focusing on overseas markets.

The person in charge of Mingtai Aluminum above said that the company currently takes high-end intelligent manufacturing and low-carbon circular economy as the two major development lines. Globalization is the company's core development direction, and at this stage, it is accelerating the construction of an international marketing network and transforming into a core service provider in the global aluminum supply chain.

Innovation New Materials has also recently stated that the company regards expanding overseas markets as an important direction for future development, focusing on "international transformation", and quickly occupying the international market around the strategy of "industrial globalization", to respond to global customers and meet their needs as quickly as possible, to continuously strengthen and consolidate the market share of products, enhance international competitiveness, and create a global aluminum alloy material supplier.

In terms of 3C consumer electronics profiles, with the continuous commissioning of production lines in the innovative new material Vietnam factory, the production capacity is expanding. The company's produced aluminum alloy materials are already used in batches for the laptop and tablet of North American major customers, and the mobile phone aluminum profiles of Asian consumer electronics customers are in the verification stage. In addition to supplying Vietnam Chinaally, the company is expanding its supply capability to India, Thailand, Mexico and other countries and continues to expand.

"The current focus of China's aluminum industry has shifted from simply pursuing production to enhancing product quality and added value." Liu Peiyang analyzed the direction of aluminum industry development under the current China and foreign market pattern. He said that most of the export tax rebates for aluminum products have been canceled in China, which forces enterprises to eliminate low-end production capacity and focus on technology research and development. In the next few years, the industry will focus on solving key core technologies such as low-carbon smelting and precision processing, and expand the scale of the recycled aluminum industry. Products with high added value, such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicle aluminum materials, have now become the main export products. Despite facing high tariffs and anti-dumping policies overseas, the export scale still continues to grow steadily, which is enough to prove the core competitiveness of China high-end aluminum materials.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.