SunSirs: Weak Dry Bulk Market Can't Stop Indonesia's Coal Export Dominance

The Baltic Dry Index has been falling for several days, setting a new phase low. At the same time, the demand for seaborne coal imports in many countries around the world has shown a differentiated pattern. Indonesia, with its stable export capacity, has maintained its position as the world's largest seaborne coal exporter, and the transport structure characteristics of the sub-market are significant.

The downward trend continues! The BDI index has reached a new low since the end of May.

The international dry bulk shipping market continues to cool down, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling again on Friday, marking a sixth consecutive trading day of decline, with a daily drop of 1.8%, closing at 2981 points, hitting the lowest level since May 21st, and the overall trend of the market's freight rates is weak.

From the performance of the sectoral shipping indices, the market situation is obviously differentiated. The 150,000-ton Capesize index, which mainly transports bulk goods such as iron ore and coal, recorded the most significant decline, falling by 2.9% to 4,893 points; the Panamanian index, which mainly transports 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal and grain, fell slightly by 18 points to 2,236 points. Only the Ultra-Benny index, which is slightly higher than the ultra-benny index, rose slightly by 4 points to 1,588 points, becoming the only sectoral shipping index to rise on the day. Looking at the whole week, the benchmark BDI index fell by 7.5% cumulatively, and the overall decline of the dry bulk market this week was highlighted.

Demand for coal is divided! Global major markets for coal imports are mixed.

From January to April 2026, the demand for seaborne coal imports in the world's major economies showed mixed trends, with significant differences in the performance of various regional markets. According to data from Banchero Costa, the demand in traditional coal进口 powers has generally weakened, while the demand in emerging and some Asian countries has steadily increased.

Among them, China's import of coal by sea decreased by 14.9% year-on-year, and the total volume dropped to 994 million tons; India, the EU, and Malaysia also saw a decrease in imports, down by 5.0%, 6.7%, and 3.6% year-on-year, with the total imports being 748 million tons, 202 million tons, and 122 million tons, respectively. In contrast, the demand from Japan, South Korea, and some Southeast Asian and South Asian countries stood out for its growth. South Korea's import volume increased by a large margin of 19.3% year-on-year to 37.5 million tons, while Japan's import volume increased by 2.8% year-on-year to 53.1 million tons. Vietnam and Bangladesh's import volumes increased slightly by 0.7% and 10.0%, respectively, with a total of 23.1 million tons and 6.2 million tons.

Stable leader in the world! Indonesia's coal exports have shown resilience despite fluctuations

The data shows that from 2026 to now, Indonesia's exports of coal by sea have accounted for 35.4% of the global market share, firmly establishing its position as the world's largest exporter of coal by sea. Looking back at the export trend in recent years, Indonesia's coal exports have shown a development trajectory of "slump rebound, continuous surge, and slight adjustment".

Hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and stimulated by domestic consumption policies in Indonesia, the country’s coal exports were sluggish overall from 2020 to 2021. The industry rebounded strongly in 2022, with exports surging to a record high, and continued the growth trend in 2023, according to data from AXS Marine’s ship tracking. In 2023, Indonesia’s total coal exports by sea reached 5.002 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. In 2024, the export scale set a new high, increasing by 7.4% year-on-year to 5.373 billion tons, and then slightly adjusted in 2025, with the export volume revised to 4.942 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. In terms of transportation location, Indonesia’s coal export loading ports are highly concentrated, with most of the goods loaded and shipped from the East and South Kalimantan regions of Borneo Island, and a small amount of goods from the ports in the southern part of Sumatra Island.

Trade pattern is clear! The ship types for exports and the characteristics of the target markets are distinct.

From the perspective of the structure of the shipping vessels, in 2024, the main shipping vessels for Indonesia's coal exports are concentrated in medium and large bulk carriers. Among them, the Panamanian vessels bear 52.3% of the export volume, accounting for the first place; the ultra-handymax vessels follow, accounting for 27.7%; the Panamanianmax vessels and the Capemax vessels have volume shares of 10.3% and 7.6%, respectively, and the participation of large Capemax vessels is relatively low.

From the perspective of export destinations, China mainland remained the largest import market for Indonesia's seaborne coal in the first four months of 2026, accounting for 36.3% of its total exports, corresponding to a volume of 52.9 million tons, but it decreased slightly by 5.1% year-on-year. India was the second largest export market, accounting for 18.7%, with a volume of 27.2 million tons, down 21.5% year-on-year.

The rest of the segments showed mixed trends: The Philippines imported 8.5% of the total, with a volume of 123 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Vietnam imported 7.2%, with a volume of 104 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; South Korea and Japan imported 77 million tons and 75 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and an increase of 10.9% against the trend; Malaysia and China's Taiwan Province saw a contraction in import demand, with year-on-year decreases of 13.7% and 30.0%, and the volume dropped to 72 million tons and 33 million tons.

In addition, the export port formation of Indonesia's core coal in the first four months of 2026 is clear, with more than a dozen ports such as Tanjung Perak/Tanjung Lesung, Bali Barat, Bontang, and others as the main hubs for foreign shipment, among which the Tanjung Perak/Tanjung Lesung port has the highest loading volume, with a cumulative shipment of 28.1 million tons. The division of labor among the ports is clear, supporting Indonesia's vast coal maritime export system.

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