SunSirs: The Methanol Market Was Showing a Trend of Strengthening

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 5 to June 8 (as of 10:00), domestic methanol quotes at East China ports rose from 3,160 RMB/ton to approximately 3,213 RMB/ton. During this period, prices increased by 1.69%; however, they fell by 2.50% month-on-month and rose by 38.92% year-on-year. Domestic inland methanol prices continued to climb, driven by concentrated pre-sales and high-volume shipments from inland plants, alongside logistical bottlenecks affecting truck loading in multiple regions. Furthermore, a rebound in futures prices boosted market sentiment; driven by a "buy-on-rising-prices" mentality, spot quotes generally trended upward across various regions.

As of the close on June 4, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated downward. The MA2609 contract opened at 2,938 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,938 RMB/ton and a low of 2,868 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,877 RMB/ton—a decline of 31 RMB/ton from the previous day's settlement price. Open interest for the MA2609 contract stood at 694,900 lots, a decrease of 31,300 lots from the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices across regions as of June 5:

Regarding costs, coal supplies are ample; however, as market prices rose too rapidly in the preceding period, downstream resistance to high prices has intensified, suggesting that prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. Methanol costs are being influenced by factors that are generally favorable.

On the demand side, looking at downstream sectors, the market price of glacial acetic acid continues to trend downward, the formaldehyde market has seen a slight rise, and the dimethyl ether market is edging up amidst overall stability. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, with demand-side factors generally leaning positive for methanol.

Regarding supply, the Inner Mongolia Donghua plant is undergoing maintenance, while the Xinjiang Tianye and Northwest Energy plants have resumed operations; the volume of capacity coming back online exceeds the volume lost, resulting in increased production and a rise in the capacity utilization rate. Overall, supply-side factors are exerting bearish pressure on the market.

In overseas markets, as of the close on June 4, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $605–607 per ton. The FOB US Gulf market settled at 151–153 cents per gallon, and the FOB Rotterdam market settled at €450–452 per ton.

Market Outlook:

Both upstream methanol producers and downstream enterprises in the domestic market have experienced output losses due to maintenance shutdowns, resulting in a standoff between supply and demand. Inventories at ports and inland locations remain low, and the supply of spot methanol available for sale is tight; the limited volume of circulating spot methanol continues to provide market support. Overall, SunSirs methanol analysts anticipate that the domestic spot methanol market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation.

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