SunSirs: Maintenances at Tube Mills Increased, Seamless Tube Prices Fluctuated at High Levels in May

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes rose slightly in May. At the beginning of the month, the quoted price for 20# seamless tubes (108×4.5 mm) was 4,084 RMB/ton; by the end of the month, it had risen to 4,104 RMB/ton—an increase of 0.49%—representing a year-on-year decline of 0.01%.

Regarding raw materials, the price of seamless tube billets fluctuated at high levels throughout May, with the price gap between the north and south widening somewhat. By the end of the month, the price of billets in Jiangsu stood at 3,640 RMB/ton—an increase of 60 RMB/ton from late April—while the price in Shandong was 3,440 RMB/ton, marking a marginal rise of just 10 RMB/ton. Prices for upstream steel raw materials, such as coke and iron ore, remained relatively high, and the supply of scrap steel stayed tight; these factors provided strong cost-side support for seamless tubes, limiting the potential for significant price declines.

On the supply side: Operating rates declined in May due to increased maintenance at tube mills, though absolute production volumes remained high relative to the same period in previous years.

On the demand side: Market activity was characterized by a "decent first half followed by a weakening second half"; the approach of the rainy season in the south and sluggish downstream procurement led to a cooling of trading volume. While standard small- and medium-diameter tubes faced significant downward pressure, demand for high-end specialized tubes—such as those for oil and gas, chemicals, and high-pressure boilers—remained robust. Overall industry inventory shifted from destocking to accumulation, with structural divergence emerging as the month's most notable market feature.

Regarding exports, the performance of seamless tube exports remained generally stable in May, maintaining the relative resilience seen in the first quarter; however, the growth rate of new export orders slowed due to overseas trade protection measures and high domestic price levels. Imports continued to consist primarily of high-end specialty tubes that are difficult to source domestically; volumes remained limited, and the overall net export pattern remained fundamentally unchanged.

Market Outlook

In summary, looking ahead to June, the seamless tube market is set to enter the traditional off-season for consumption. Demand faces seasonal headwinds—such as the rainy season and high temperatures—exerting pressure to reduce inventories; however, high raw material costs and scheduled maintenance at tube mills continue to provide some price support. The market is expected to see narrow, slightly bearish fluctuations; prices for standard tubes may experience a modest decline, whereas high-end specialty tubes are likely to remain relatively resilient due to solid underlying demand. Key factors to monitor include changes in tube mill inventory levels and macroeconomic policy developments.

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