SunSirs: Global Resource Controls Coupled with Surging New Energy Demand Drive Praseodymium-Neodymium Products to New Highs

Global commodities markets are currently exhibiting structural divergence; specifically, rare earth products within the praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd) series—bolstered by the global wave of new energy electrification and a contraction in overseas raw ore supplies—have embarked on a sustained upward rally. In recent trading, prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and praseodymium-neodymium metal have successively surged to new highs, with the center of gravity for spot prices continuing its upward shift; these materials have emerged as the leading performers within the non-ferrous raw materials sector. Driven by the confluence of multiple reinforcing factors—including rigid controls on domestic mining quotas, tightened restrictions on overseas ore imports, and a recovery in demand across the entire downstream permanent magnet industry chain—the domestic spot market for Pr-Nd has broken out of its recent consolidation phase. Regional price quotes have risen across the board, and price linkages between the upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain have become notably pronounced. When analyzed in conjunction with customs trade data and industry fundamentals, the current "tight balance" market structure for Pr-Nd appears to be becoming further entrenched.

I. Domestic Spot Market Performance: Early June Update

According to data from SunSirs as of June 5, the benchmark price for Pr-Nd alloy settled at 902,800 RMB/ton, while the benchmark price for Pr-Nd oxide reached 698,200 RMB/ton. Both prices recorded a slight uptick on the day; on a month-over-month basis, prices for the full month of June have surged by over 12%. Year-to-date, prices have cumulatively climbed by nearly 40% from the lows recorded at the beginning of the year, positioning the overall spot market within the upper range of its annual trading corridor. In terms of regional spot market quotes: Core smelting hubs such as Inner Mongolia and Sichuan serve as the central nexus for domestic supply. Ex-works negotiations for praseodymium-neodymium oxide range from 695,000 to 702,000 RMB/ton, while praseodymium-neodymium metal is quoted at 898,000 to 910,000 RMB/ton; the majority of this supply is directed toward large-scale magnetic material processing bases. In the permanent magnet industry clusters of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong, delivered-to-factory purchase prices are marked up by 4,000 to 6,000 RMB/ton compared to the production regions; downstream consumers are procuring in batches based on immediate requirements, with transactions driven by essential demand providing firm support for current price quotes. Coastal ports in South China, bolstered by foreign trade orders, exhibit higher spot circulation quotes, with market circulation prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide ranging from 705,000 to 713,000 RMB/ton. In the scattered smelting regions of the Southwest, supply volumes are limited; quotes in these areas have risen in tandem with the mainstream market, maintaining regional price differentials within a reasonable range. Currently, traders in the spot market are holding low inventory levels and are reluctant to sell; their willingness to offload stock at low prices remains weak, while actual spot transaction volumes are showing a steady recovery.

II. Domestic and International Supply, Production, and Comprehensive Demand Landscape

(I) Supply and Production: Strict Domestic Quota Controls + Disrupted Overseas Mineral Supply = Limited Overall Production Growth

China implements an annual quota management system for the total volume of rare earth mining and smelting. For the current year, the mining quota for light rare earths underwent only minor adjustments, while the smelting and separation quota remained largely unchanged from the previous year; consequently, there is an inherent ceiling on the supply of praseodymium-neodymium raw materials. Compounding this situation are normalized environmental protection regulations, which have led to periodic maintenance shutdowns at various small-to-medium-sized smelting facilities. As a result, the actual domestic output of praseodymium-neodymium oxide declined month-on-month in May. Furthermore, the supply of recycled rare earth scrap—hampered by a shortage of raw materials—also saw a month-on-month decline, proving insufficient to offset the supply gap created by reduced primary ore production. Consequently, the industry's aggregate social inventory has fallen by 15% year-on-year, with raw material inventories dropping to their lowest levels in nearly three years. Overseas supply-side disruptions continue to intensify; constrained by geopolitical factors and export policies, exports of raw rare earth ores from Myanmar to China have contracted sharply year-on-year. Meanwhile, Vietnam has implemented a new policy banning the export of raw ores. Consequently, the volume of incremental overseas ore sources continues to shrink, narrowing the channels available for supplementing domestic supplies of praseodymium-neodymium raw materials. As a result, the growth rate of effective global supply is now significantly lagging behind the growth rate of demand.

(II) Demand Side: Simultaneous Expansion Across Multiple New Energy Sectors; Sustained Release of Domestic and International Core Demand

On the international front, the global energy transition is accelerating. New energy vehicle manufacturers and wind turbine OEMs in Europe, the U.S., and Southeast Asia are ramping up production. Overseas permanent magnet manufacturers are showing steadily rising demand for locking in supplies through long-term contracts, while various nations are accelerating the establishment of their own domestic rare earth reserve systems, making routine spot-market procurement a normalized practice. Data from the IEA indicates that global demand for praseodymium and neodymium in permanent magnets has doubled since 2015; this demand is projected to increase by another 30% by 2030, signaling a steady expansion of long-term overseas demand.

Domestically, demand is bolstered by four key growth drivers: First, permanent magnet motors have become the standard configuration for new energy vehicles, ensuring stable core demand for NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) raw materials on a per-vehicle basis; the steady upward trend in domestic new energy vehicle production and sales during the first half of the year has directly driven a surge in praseodymium-neodymium procurement volumes. Second, the installation of direct-drive wind turbines is accelerating, while policies promoting energy-efficient industrial motors have been implemented, generating incremental demand through the retrofitting of aging motor systems. Third, the rapid expansion of industries involving industrial robots, smart equipment, and micro-motors for low-altitude aircraft is creating a continuous stream of new, essential demand. Fourth, traditional consumer electronics and home appliance motors continue to generate robust, steady demand. The synergistic effect across these multiple sectors is collectively driving an overall increase in downstream demand for praseodymium and neodymium.

III. April 2026 Rare Earth Import and Export Customs Data and Year-on-Year Analysis

The General Administration of Customs has released foreign trade statistics for rare earths for the month of April. In April, the total physical volume of domestic rare earth imports amounted to 8,780.7 tons—a year-on-year decline of 30.44%—while the total import value fell by 8.09% compared to the previous year; the tightening supply of raw rare earth ores from overseas sources directly weighed down import volumes. During the same month, rare earth exports totaled 5,308.6 tons—a year-on-year increase of 10.95%—while the total export value rose by 33.33% month-on-month; a concentrated wave of deliveries for overseas permanent magnet orders was the primary driver behind this surge in export volumes. Cumulative Data for January–April: Cumulative rare earth imports totaled 40,857.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The total import value surged by 87.5% year-on-year, reflecting a significant upward trend in the unit import price of praseodymium-neodymium raw materials. Cumulative exports reached 19,887.6 tons, up 4.9% year-on-year; inventory replenishment within overseas supply chains drove steady export growth during the first four months. In terms of product categories, praseodymium-neodymium oxides and metals were the primary commodities for both imports and exports. The combination of reduced imports and increased exports further tightened the supply of domestic spot market inventory, thereby boosting domestic spot prices from the foreign trade front.

IV. Analysis of Price Linkages Across the Entire Rare Earth Industry Chain

Upstream: Prices for rare earth concentrates continued their upward trajectory. The settlement price for rare earth concentrates in the second quarter surged by over 44% quarter-on-quarter, establishing a strong cost-based floor for raw materials. This rise in production costs for smelting enterprises compelled them to raise their quoted prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides and metals, thereby narrowing the margin for low-priced shipments from the smelting sector.

Midstream: Prices for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) permanent magnet materials rose in tandem. Quoted prices for finished permanent magnets across various grades were adjusted upward in lockstep with raw material costs; specifically, the price for the standard N35 grade permanent magnet has risen by over 50% year-to-date. Permanent magnet processing enterprises are gradually passing on these cost pressures to downstream sectors, leveraging their long-term supply contracts.

Downstream: Performance among terminal products has diverged. New energy vehicles and complete wind turbine units—bolstered by supportive industrial policies—have maintained stable terminal product pricing and possess the capacity to absorb the rising costs of upstream raw materials. Conversely, ordinary small home appliances and low-end motors are constrained by weak terminal consumer demand; consequently, attempts to raise finished product prices have met with resistance. Some small and medium-sized processing enterprises have scaled back production and are purchasing raw materials strictly on an "as-needed" basis, thereby placing a slight cap on the potential for a short-term price surge in praseodymium-neodymium. Meanwhile, market conditions for medium-to-heavy rare earth varieties—specifically dysprosium and terbium—remain relatively weak, exhibiting a divergent trend characterized by "strength in light rare earths, weakness in heavy rare earths"; as such, they are unlikely to exert any downward drag on the market performance of light rare earths. V. Market Outlook for Praseodymium-Neodymium Products

Downstream magnetic material manufacturers are proactively stockpiling in preparation for the peak season of the new energy industry chain in the third quarter. Coupled with the steady inflow of monthly export orders from overseas markets, spot prices for praseodymium-neodymium are expected to remain at elevated levels—characterized by sideways volatility—bolstered by low inventory levels and cost support. Prices are projected to fluctuate within a range centered around the benchmark price; while the probability of a drastic plunge is low, the potential for a rapid, unilateral surge is also limited, as some small-to-medium-sized downstream enterprises continue to adopt a cautious, "buy-on-demand" procurement strategy.

Given the normalization of domestic rare earth mining quota controls and the lengthy lead times required for new overseas mining capacity to come online, the global supply elasticity for praseodymium-neodymium remains relatively weak. With long-term demand from the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors steadily expanding, the prevailing environment of a tight supply-demand balance is unlikely to be reversed. Consequently, prices for praseodymium-neodymium products are expected to remain at generally high levels over the medium to long term; any periodic price corrections would likely stem solely from a temporary contraction in essential downstream demand during seasonal off-peak periods, with downside potential firmly constrained by underlying raw material costs and inventory levels.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.