SunSirs: Amidst Weak Supply and Demand and Two-Way Market Maneuvering, Carbide Prices Edged Up Slightly in May

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the domestic calcium carbide market stabilized at a low level and trended upward within a narrow range during May; overall price fluctuations were limited, with no instances of unilateral sharp surges. At the beginning of the month, calcium carbide prices hovered at the low point reached following the decline in April; by the end of the month, prices had risen steadily. The reference price stood at 2,324 RMB/ton at the start of the month, climbing to 2,480 RMB/ton by month-end—a monthly increase of 6.7%. Regionally, mainstream ex-factory prices in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, ranged from 2,400 to 2,550 RMB/ton; in Shaanxi, where higher electricity rates exerted pressure on production costs, ex-factory prices held firm at 2,400 RMB/ton. Regional price differentials remained stable, and the flow of market supplies was moderate.

Tightening supply is bolstering upward price momentum. In the major production regions of the Northwest, the implementation of peak-shifting electricity usage—combined with concentrated maintenance of carbide furnaces and intensified regional inspections regarding energy consumption and environmental compliance—has led to a decline in industry operating rates. Consequently, market supply has become tight, and corporate inventories remain at low levels, reinforcing manufacturers' resolve to uphold prices. Simultaneously, the costs of semi-coke and electricity have ceased their decline and stabilized; this firming of the cost base, coupled with support from moving average systems, has contributed to a modest month-on-month rise in carbide prices.

Weak downstream demand is limiting price gains. Downstream PVC facilities are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and factories are replenishing inventories solely to meet immediate operational needs, with no demand for large-scale stockpiling. Compounded by sluggish end-market demand in the real estate sector, the downstream sector is failing to provide sufficient support for raw material demand. This weakness on the demand side—combined with insufficient upward momentum in the medium term (as indicated by the 20-day moving average)—is collectively constraining the extent of price increases for calcium carbide; consequently, the market continues to maintain a pattern of only modest upward movement.

Market Outlook:

According to SunSirs, regarding market fundamentals, some calcium carbide production units are expected to resume operations in the near term, leading to a slight recovery in supply. Meanwhile, maintenance shutdowns for PVC facilities have not yet fully concluded, and short-term demand remains relatively weak; consequently, calcium carbide prices may experience a minor correction. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include electricity consumption policies in the Northwest region, the pace of recovery in PVC operating rates, and shifts in support and resistance levels relative to moving averages.

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