SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Downward Overall in May

Price Trends

According to the SunSirs Commodity Analysis System, caustic soda prices exhibited a weak trend this month. The average market price stood at 628 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 620 RMB/ton at the end of the month, representing a price decline of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.94%.

On May 28, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 748 points—an increase of 2 points from the previous day. This figure represents a 64.85% decline from the cycle's peak of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and a 5.80% increase from the cycle's low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices trended downward this month. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda hovered around 560–650 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan ranging from approximately 850 to 900 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices consolidated, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) ranging from roughly 2,000 to 2,050 RMB/ton. Although caustic soda manufacturers underwent maintenance shutdowns in May, the destocking process was not significant due to substantial existing inventory levels. Regarding downstream demand, end-market orders from sectors such as printing and dyeing, chemical fibers, and water treatment remained lackluster, resulting in persistently weak overall market demand. Downstream enterprises largely adopted a wait-and-see attitude—specifically, waiting for lower prices—and, facing insufficient demand, limited their purchasing to only essential requirements; consequently, trading activity remained sluggish. Manufacturers' shipment volumes were generally mediocre.

Market Outlook:

Analysts at SunSirs observe that, in the near term, domestic downstream sectors have largely adopted a "buy-on-demand" strategy, resulting in no substantial improvement in overall demand. Caustic soda manufacturers continue to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream buyers remain resistant to current price levels. Although industry maintenance shutdowns remain frequent in June, the resumption of operations by facilities that had previously idled means there are no particularly bullish factors on the supply side; consequently, with downstream sectors prioritizing demand-driven procurement, the market remains characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, it is anticipated that the caustic soda market will likely continue to trend weakly in the coming period, with specific market performance ultimately contingent upon downstream demand.

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