SunSirs: The Overall Price Center for Domestic Polyester Filament Shifted Downward in May

Price trend

In May 2026, the domestic market for polyester filament yarn generally exhibited a trend of persistent, gradual decline and a downward shift in price levels. Prices remained in a stalemate and fluctuated during the early part of the month; by mid-month, a concentrated downturn occurred, driven by price adjustments made by major manufacturers. In the latter part of the month, quoted prices appeared stable on the surface, yet actual transaction discounts continued to widen, resulting in a broad-based weakening across all product categories—with DTY recording the most significant decline.

POY 150D/48F: 8,756 RMB/ton (start of month) → 8,575 RMB/ton (May 25); down 2.07% for the month.

FDY 150D/96F: 9,178 RMB/ton (start of month) → 8,978 RMB/ton (May 29); down 2.15% for the month.

DTY 150D/48F: 9,987 RMB/ton (start of month) → 9,613 RMB/ton (May 26); down 3.74% for the month (leading the decline).

Phased Breakdown:

May 1–10: High-level stalemate with light trading volume.

May 12–13: Industry leaders collectively lowered prices by 100–200 RMB/ton, triggering a stampede-like follow-on decline across the market.

Post–May 19: Quoted prices remained weakly stable, while actual transaction prices dropped further by 50–150 RMB/ton; the DTY segment exhibited the most pronounced weakness.

Key Drivers

1. Cost Side: Strong Crude Oil, Weak PTA—A Disconnect in Cost Transmission

Crude Oil: Supported by Middle East geopolitical factors; WTI trades between $102–$105/barrel, providing a floor for costs.

PTA: Reduced maintenance activity and weak demand caused prices to fall to 6,090 RMB/ton on May 26, leading to an easing in polyester production costs.

Observation: With crude oil rising while PTA falls, the transmission of costs to the polyester filament sector is disrupted, resulting in squeezed profit margins.

2. Supply Side: Production Cuts Implemented, Yet Inventories Remain High

Major polyester manufacturers have carried out self-imposed production cuts for May, driving operating rates down to below 86%.

Filament Inventories: Levels have retreated from the 20+ days recorded in April; however, they remain at a historically high level for this time of year, and inventory destocking is proceeding slowly.

Cash Flow: POY and FDY products are generating modest profits of 150–250 RMB/ton, while DTY is incurring slight losses, with manufacturers offering price concessions to facilitate shipments.

3. Demand Side: The Peak Season Draws to a Close; Both Domestic and Export Demand Are Weak (Key Bearish Factor)

Downstream Weaving: The "Golden March, Silver April" season has concluded; operating rates have retreated to approximately 75%, and finished goods inventories are accumulating.

Domestic Sales: New orders for apparel and home textiles are insufficient; the market for standard fabrics is characterized by intense internal competition and razor-thin profit margins.

Foreign Trade: Elevated shipping costs and the diversion of orders to other regions have led to a cautious approach toward accepting new business; only orders from Southeast Asia have shown a modest rebound.

Market Sentiment: Downstream buyers are inclined to "buy on dips" rather than "buy on rallies"; purchasing activity is currently limited to restocking for immediate operational needs, with a prevailing wait-and-see attitude.

Market Summary

May Highlights: Insufficient cost support, sluggish demand, and high inventory pressure led to a sustained weakening of prices, with DTY leading the decline.

Industry Chain Status: The upstream crude oil market remained strong while PTA was weak; midstream production cuts proved insufficient to offset weak demand; and the downstream weaving sector faced low operating rates and high inventory levels, exhibiting clear negative feedback effects.

Short-Term Outlook (Late May – Early June)

Prices: Continued weakness, oscillating near the bottom; POY: 8,400–8,600 RMB/ton; FDY: 8,800–9,000 RMB/ton; DTY: 9,200–9,500 RMB/ton.

Key Watchpoints:

1. PTA Prices: Will they stabilize and rebound?

2. Downstream Operating Rates: Will they see a marginal recovery in June?

3. Inventory Reduction: Can filament inventories drop below a 15-day supply?

Turning Point Signals: Stabilizing crude oil + PTA rebound + warming weaving orders + declining inventories; a sustained rally is unlikely without all four factors.

Operational Recommendations

Manufacturers: Prioritize sales volume over price, manage inventory levels, and avoid indiscriminate production cuts.

Downstream Users: Limit purchases to immediate necessities; replenish stocks in batches during market dips, but refrain from speculative hoarding.

Traders: Maintain a strategy of rapid turnover and light positioning to mitigate risk; remain vigilant against further downward price movements.

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