SunSirs: China Rapeseed Meal Prices Under Pressure and Retreat in May

In May, spot prices for rapeseed meal generally followed a volatile downward trend; although there were minor rebounds intermittently, the market remained under significant overall pressure. According to data from SunSirs' Spot Price Tracker, the average market price for rapeseed meal stood at 2,536 RMB/ton on May 1st and fell to 2,392 RMB/ton on May 28th—a decline of 5.68%.

With increased arrivals of rapeseed at ports and higher operating rates at oil mills, rapeseed meal production saw a significant surge. This led to a rapid expansion of available market supply, directly exerting downward pressure on prices. Concurrently, as the launch of the new domestic rapeseed season approached, market expectations regarding future supply increases were further reinforced, thereby intensifying the downward pressure on prices.

The downstream livestock sector remained in a prolonged slump, resulting in weak demand for feed procurement. Although the aquaculture sector entered its traditional peak season, the slow pace of feed application meant that demand recovery lagged behind that of the same period in previous years, proving insufficient to offset the pressure from the increased supply. Meanwhile, hog farming continued to suffer losses, leading to sluggish demand. Consequently, the pace of feed procurement slowed down, and the support provided by essential demand for rapeseed meal weakened.

Pressure from incoming shipments of imported rapeseed persists, and oil mill operating rates are expected to remain at high levels; as a result, the supply of rapeseed meal is projected to remain in a state of surplus. The pattern of losses in the hog farming sector is unlikely to change in the near term; while the aquaculture sector may see a seasonal uptick in demand, this is unlikely to fundamentally alter the overall market dynamic of supply exceeding demand. Overall, rapeseed meal prices in June are expected to continue exhibiting weak, volatile fluctuations; market participants should pay close attention to the pace of rapeseed imports and changes in oil mill operating rates.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.