SunSirs: With Weak Cost and Demand, Xylene Experienced a Volatile Downward Trend in May

In May 2026, the domestic market for xylenes experienced volatile fluctuations. The overall trend was characterized by an initial decline, followed by a slight rebound mid-month, and a subsequent retreat toward the end of the month; consequently, the overall price center shifted downward, and the market closed lower for the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from May 1 to May 28, domestic xylene prices fell from 6,813.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,704.33 RMB/ton at the end of the month, representing a cumulative decline of 1.6% over the period.

Cost Factors:

In May, cost-side support for xylenes remained generally weak, with market trends closely tracking international crude oil and naphtha prices. International crude oil experienced frequent fluctuations throughout the month and generally lacked sustained upward momentum; periodic price declines consequently placed synchronous downward pressure on the naphtha market. The decline in refining feedstock prices directly lowered refiners' overall production costs, making it difficult for the cost side to provide any substantial floor of support for xylenes. Even when crude oil staged brief rebounds during this period—triggering slight upticks in feedstock prices—the duration of these rallies was short and their magnitude limited, resulting in insufficient transmission of cost-side support to the downstream market. Overall, the cost environment remained consistently weak, serving as a primary catalyst for the general downward trend observed in xylene prices this month.

Supply Side:

In May, the domestic market for xylenes was characterized by an overall ample supply of feedstock. Operations at major domestic refineries remained stable, with overall operating rates remaining robust; only a few facilities underwent brief maintenance shutdowns, resulting in a negligible impact on overall production output. Refineries within the region continued to release a steady stream of products into the market for external sale; this was further augmented by the regular arrival and warehousing of imported supplies, thereby replenishing domestic circulating inventories. Consequently, the market was well-stocked with circulating supplies, and inventories held by traders remained at standard levels, leading to increased competitive pressure regarding product sales. Influenced by a general weakening of market sentiment, some traders proactively lowered their price quotes to accelerate inventory turnover; this loose supply landscape continued to constrain any potential for a rebound in market prices.

Demand Side:

According to data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic PX market maintained a stable price trend from May 1 to May 28. As of May 28, the prevailing price across the four major regions—East China, North China, Central China, and South China—stood at 9,900 RMB/ton, remaining unchanged from May 1. Major production facilities, such as those at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical, operated stably, and product sales and distribution proceeded normally.

International Market: Throughout May, prices in the Asian paraxylene (PX) market experienced a volatile downward trend. As of May 26, the closing prices for the Asian PX market were quoted at US$1,068–1,070/ton (FOB Korea) and US$1,089–1,091/ton (CFR China). This represents a decrease of US$198/ton compared to the prices recorded on April 29.

Downstream demand remained lackluster in May, with insufficient follow-through on essential requirements failing to drive a market upturn. The primary downstream sectors for xylenes—including aromatic solvents, isomerization units, polyester, and coatings—generally maintained a sluggish production pace, reflecting low enthusiasm for manufacturing activities. The release of demand in the end-consumer market was limited; consequently, downstream enterprises faced sluggish shipments of finished products and slow inventory turnover. Influenced by these factors, downstream buyers adopted a cautious procurement stance, largely adhering to an "on-demand" purchasing model. Instances of concentrated inventory restocking were rare, and buyers simultaneously demonstrated an inclination to push for lower raw material prices. Although there was a modest, localized uptick in essential demand during this period, its scope was too narrow to reverse the overall weakness in demand, leaving the demand side unable to provide effective support to the market.

Market Outlook:

Based on an assessment of current market fundamentals, the domestic xylene market is expected to continue trading within a fluctuating range in the short term. On the cost side, support remains inconsistent due to uncertainties surrounding international crude oil prices; meanwhile, the currently ample supply landscape is unlikely to tighten significantly in the near future. Compounded by the slow pace of recovery in downstream demand, the market currently lacks sufficient momentum for any substantial upward price movement. However, as various refining and chemical units subsequently enter their scheduled maintenance cycles, market supply is expected to gradually tighten. Concurrently, should international crude oil prices stabilize and begin to rebound, positive cost-side factors will gradually come into play. Furthermore, as traditional demand within downstream industries gradually warms up, the willingness of end-users to make purchases is expected to see a slow but steady increase. Driven by this confluence of factors, the downward trend in the xylene market is expected to gradually decelerate, creating the potential for prices to bottom out, stabilize, and undergo a modest recovery. Going forward, key areas of focus will include fluctuations in international crude oil prices, the progress of refinery maintenance schedules, changes in port inventories, and operational and purchasing trends within downstream industries.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.