SunSirs: With Both Supply and Demand Weak, the TDI Market Experienced a Weak Downward Trend in May

Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic TDI market in East China experienced a sharp decline in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price for TDI stood at 17,833 RMB/ton; by May 28, the price had fallen to 15,966 RMB/ton, marking a monthly decrease of 10.47%, while still representing a year-on-year increase of 30.16%.

Market analysis

In May, the TDI market was primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics. At the beginning of the month, TDI market prices were elevated; however, signs of softening demand began to emerge, leading to a loosening of quotes among intermediaries and a downward shift in the center of trading activity. By mid-month, frequent reports of maintenance shutdowns at major domestic and international manufacturers fueled expectations of tightening supply; yet, with domestic demand remaining persistently weak—resulting in a scenario of weakness on both the supply and demand fronts—the magnitude of the TDI price decline intensified. In late May, the TDI market's downward momentum slowed, settling into a trend of modest price adjustments.

Supply Side: Mitsui Japan's 50,000-ton/year TDI facility is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on May 14, with the turnaround expected to last until July 7. Shanghai Plant B's 160,000-ton/year TDI facility commenced its annual maintenance on May 20, with the shutdown expected to last approximately three weeks. GNFC India's TDI facility located in Dahej is scheduled to undergo its annual planned maintenance shutdown from May 30, 2026, to June 11, 2026—a total duration of 13 days.

Cost Perspective: In May, the toluene market exhibited a volatile trend, with overall prices declining compared to the beginning of the month. Supply in the toluene market remained generally stable throughout May; however, follow-through purchasing from downstream end-users was lackluster, with market transactions driven primarily by essential demand. Looking ahead, the cost side is expected to continue providing underlying support, and manufacturers remain firm in their pricing stance; nevertheless, given the sluggish pace of recovery in domestic downstream demand, the toluene market is more prone to price declines than increases.

Market outlook

According to an analyst at SunSirs specializing in TDI data, the current market atmosphere for TDI is relatively subdued. While suppliers remain steadfast in their resolve to uphold prices, traders are approaching the market with caution. Amidst this interplay between supply and demand, the TDI market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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