SunSirs: US-Israel Conflict with Iran Shakes Up Energy Sector: Five Major Structural Shifts Underway

According to Sina Finance, three months after the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, the global energy system is undergoing its most profound transformation since the oil crises of the 1970s. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has warned that the world faces "the greatest energy security crisis in history"—a crisis that will fundamentally reshape the landscape of energy investment. The following are five major trends currently transforming the energy industry:

First, energy security has supplanted climate change as the top priority on the agenda. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 20% of global oil shipments and nearly 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, bringing an average of $1.5 billion in daily energy trade to a standstill. Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO of oilfield services giant Baker Hughes, stated bluntly that this crisis renders "fundamental structural changes to the energy system inevitable," noting that governments and the industry alike will now prioritize energy security over price considerations.

Second, coal demand is making a strong comeback, putting the energy transition roadmap to the test. Disruptions in natural gas supplies are forcing numerous nations to reactivate their coal-fired power plants. Bloomberg recently reported that Japan has announced plans to expand its use of less-efficient coal power, South Korea is considering relaxing restrictions on highly polluting electricity generation, and India has mandated that its coal-fired power plants operate at full capacity. The IEA projects that global investment in coal will climb to $180 billion by 2026—a ten-year high. Analysts point out that the narrative positioning natural gas as a "transition fuel" is rapidly unraveling.

Third, new energy sources and energy storage technologies are experiencing a strategic-level acceleration. Elevated oil prices have opened a historic window of opportunity for clean energy. Data from Goldman Sachs reveals that since the outbreak of the conflict, the share prices of China's battery industry leaders—CATL and BYD—have collectively surged by over 15%, significantly outperforming energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron. The IEA forecasts that total global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion by 2026, with approximately $2.2 trillion of that capital flowing into power grids, energy storage, renewable energy, and nuclear power. Crispin Leick, Head of Corporate Venture Capital at Germany's EnBW, notes that the investment rationale for clean energy has shifted from a focus on "decarbonization" to one of "energy resilience."

Fourth, global supply chains are accelerating their diversification, while U.S. oil exports hit record highs. Nations are currently re-evaluating the risks associated with relying on single energy supply channels. Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, stated that countries will re-examine their strategies for ensuring energy security to avoid exposure to similar risks in the future. U.S. shale oil is emerging as a major beneficiary, with crude oil exports reaching record highs as global buyers scramble to find alternative sources to replace supplies from the Middle East.

Fifth, the structural baseline for oil prices has shifted upward, establishing an expectation of sustained high prices over the long term. Morgan Stanley has raised its oil price forecast for 2026 from a previous estimate of approximately $60 per barrel to a range of $80–$90—even under a scenario where geopolitical tensions subside. Olivier Le Peuch, CEO of the oilfield services giant SLB, asserted that high oil prices will persist even after the war concludes; he anticipates a surge in investment in offshore and deepwater oilfield development across Africa, the Americas, and Asia.

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