SunSirs: Amid Weak Supply and Demand and Declining Costs, Acrylic Acid Prices Traded Sideways After Hitting a New Low

Price trend

This week, the domestic acrylic acid market continued its weak performance trend, with the price center of gravity steadily shifting downward. According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for acrylic acid stood at 8,650.00 RMB/ton on May 21—marking a cumulative decline of 14.78% compared to the beginning of the month (10,150.00 RMB/ton)—with no apparent signs of a rebound. Overall, the industry is characterized by a pattern of "consolidation following a decline, accompanied by sluggish trading activity."

Cost Side: Weakening Propylene Raw Material Further Erodes Cost Support

The upstream propylene market remained weak throughout this week. As of May 27, the benchmark price for propylene—as tracked by SunSirs—stood at 9,067.67 RMB/ton; this represents a decline of 4.49% compared to the beginning of the month (9,494.33 RMB/ton). Consequently, the cost support provided by propylene prices to the acrylic acid market has continued to diminish. Production margins for acrylic acid have narrowed into negative territory—specifically, a loss-making range. While the residual cost support has not yet completely collapsed, any further upward momentum is now entirely lacking.

Supply Side: Limited plant maintenance; industry operating rates face downward pressure.

On the supply side, the temporary shutdown of acrylic acid units at CNOOC and Lanzhou Petrochemical has led to a slight reduction in overall industry operating rates; however, spot market supply remains relatively ample. Factory inventories have shown no significant signs of depletion, and holders continue to adopt a strategy of following market trends and offering price concessions to facilitate sales.

Notably, although operating rates at some enterprises have declined, the fundamental landscape of overall supply-side overcapacity remains unchanged. Since the beginning of the year, the industry-wide operating rate has consistently hovered at medium-to-high levels; the current operating load of 70%–75% still ranks as above-average when compared to historical figures for the same period. Consequently, the pressure to destock on the supply side has not abated in the short term.

Demand Side: Downstream Sectors Cut Operating Rates Across the Board; Demand Driven Primarily by Essential Spot Orders 

The demand side currently serves as the primary driving force shaping the acrylic acid market. Operating rates across all downstream acrylic acid sectors are currently on a downward trend, characterized by a shortage of end-market orders and subdued purchasing sentiment:

Butyl Acrylate: As the primary downstream derivative of acrylic acid, operating rates declined further from 58.07% in the previous cycle to 54.97%—a drop of 3.1 percentage points—reflecting weak demand in downstream sectors such as adhesives and coatings.

SAP Resin: Operating rates remained steady at 52.38%, holding flat against previous levels; this indicates that demand in application areas such as hygiene products remains fair, though it has not generated any incremental growth momentum.

Overall, the demand side is characterized by a cyclical pattern: "downstream production cuts → sporadic rigid demand → absence of centralized restocking → deepening wait-and-see sentiment." No signs of a market reversal or accelerated activity are currently evident.

Market outlook

Our assessment of the acrylic acid market for next week is as follows:

Cost Side: In the short term, the raw material—propylene—remains under the dual pressure of increased supply and sluggish downstream demand. It is expected to maintain a weak, volatile trading pattern; consequently, the cost support for acrylic acid is unlikely to strengthen, and the upstream sector will be unable to provide upward momentum for prices.

Core Fundamentals: Whether the demand side initiates a concentrated inventory replenishment remains the decisive variable. Currently, the operating rate for butyl acrylate continues to hover at a low level of around 54%. If downstream end-market orders show marginal improvement—potentially triggering a concentrated release of purchasing activity—market conditions may gradually stabilize. Conversely, should demand remain persistently sluggish, there remains a risk that the price center of gravity could drift even lower.

Key Focus Areas: Changes in operating rates within the acrylic acid industry—particularly regarding plant maintenance and turnaround schedules—as well as the operating status of core downstream sectors (such as butyl acrylate production) and price trends for the key feedstock, propylene.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, the acrylic acid market is highly likely to continue its pattern of low-level, sideways consolidation next week, with limited room for movement in either direction.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.