SunSirs: Supply Shortage Drives Strong Performance in China Coke Market

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System: On May 27, 2026, the average price for quasi-grade I metallurgical coke stood at 1,733 RMB/ton. The fourth round of price hikes (ranging from 50 to 60 RMB) has been fully implemented, bringing the cumulative increase to over 200 RMB. Currently, safety inspections at coal mines in Shanxi province are becoming stricter, leading to an increase in production suspensions; this tightening of supply is providing support to the spot market.

Market Trading: Steel mills are facing pressure on profit margins, and maintenance activities on blast furnaces have increased, resulting in relatively weak demand. While futures prices have retreated from recent highs, the coke market is expected to maintain a predominantly strong trajectory in the short term. Port inventories currently stand at 1.33 million tons—a slight month-on-month increase—indicating emerging pressure from inventory accumulation. Regarding raw materials, following an accident at the Liushenyuyu Coal Mine in Shanxi, numerous mines across the province have suspended operations; mines in the Shaanxi region have also halted production. These suspensions typically last around 3 to 5 days, and the scope of these production halts continues to expand. With safety inspections at production sites becoming increasingly rigorous, supply is expected to tighten in the short term.

SunSirs Coke Analysts' View: Downstream consumers are primarily engaging in "on-demand" purchasing. In the short term, coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Regarding imported Mongolian coal, quoted prices are trending higher. Currently, coke producers are enjoying reasonable profit margins and maintaining stable operating rates, ensuring a steady supply of coke; meanwhile, on-site inventories at coke plants remain at low levels.

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