SunSirs: With Fundamentals Leaning Weak, the Price Level of Polyester Staple Fiber Shifted Downward

Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic market for polyester staple fiber experienced a slight decline last week (May 18–24). As of May 24, the average market price for domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) stood at 8,020 RMB/ton, representing a 1.78% decrease compared to the beginning of the week.

Market Analysis

With cost-side support waning and U.S.-Iran negotiations facing setbacks, international crude oil prices have experienced significant volatility—driven primarily by geopolitical factors. As of May 21, the settlement price for the July contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $96.35 per barrel, while the settlement price for the July contract of Brent crude oil futures was $102.58 per barrel. In the PX market, maintenance schedules for some domestic production units may be postponed; meanwhile, maintenance plans for downstream PTA plants are highly concentrated, and polyester manufacturers have signaled an intention to further reduce production. Market sentiment regarding demand remains cautious, and weak market confidence is weighing on prices, dragging the market trend downward.

The spot market for PTA in the East China region has trended downward; at the beginning of the week, the average market price stood at 6,345 RMB/ton—a decline of 5.33% compared to the start of the week. In terms of PTA production facilities themselves, the industry's operating rate currently hovers around 60%, with domestic plants simultaneously undergoing restarts and scheduled maintenance. While a small number of additional facilities are still slated for maintenance, the overall maintenance cycle is nearing its conclusion; nevertheless, domestic supply is expected to remain relatively tight in the short term.

Downstream demand continues to weaken during the off-season, raw material costs have retreated, and inventory pressures persist; consequently, the pricing center for yarn mills has shifted slightly downward. Weaving operations remain sluggish—with operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions hovering at only around 50%—as manufacturers resist high prices and limit their purchasing primarily to immediate, essential needs. Domestic sales for the downstream textile sector are weak, and demand for new orders is lackluster. While the market currently retains a backlog of unfulfilled seasonal replenishment orders, the outlook for securing new orders in the near future remains unpromising. Furthermore, downstream apparel manufacturers are showing low inclination to place orders for new Autumn/Winter collections.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that, given the easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and sluggish purchasing activity among Asian refineries, oil prices are unlikely to sustain a significant upward trend. The PTA market is currently in a maintenance cycle, resulting in a substantial contraction on the supply side; however, as maintenance units gradually resume operations starting in June, supply is expected to ease marginally, thereby weakening cost-side support. Meanwhile, the traditional off-season for the downstream textile industry persists, with purchasing driven primarily by immediate, essential needs. Consequently, the price center of gravity for polyester staple fiber is projected to continue its downward shift.

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