SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Rises Steadily in May, Short-Term Fluctuation at High Levels Expected

According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, corrugated paper prices continued their upward trend throughout May 2026. The market was characterized by a combination of "cost-driven momentum," "major manufacturers holding firm on pricing," and "relative strength despite the traditional off-season." As of May 26, the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper stood at 2,846 RMB/ton—a 4.56% increase compared to the average price recorded on May 1.

Cost Side In May, waste paper prices in the Zhejiang region surged significantly. Domestic paper mills mirrored this trend in their procurement, directly driving up the production costs for base paper. On May 26, the average procurement price for Grade A waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang reached 1,832 RMB/ton—a 12.6% increase from the average price on May 1. On the supply side, persistent rainfall across multiple regions in May disrupted waste paper collection and reduced delivery volumes. Waste paper baling stations began hoarding inventory and were reluctant to sell, resulting in tighter market circulation. Furthermore, leading paper manufacturers issued multiple rounds of price hikes for waste paper procurement, fostering a market atmosphere supportive of higher prices. Additionally, elevated international crude oil prices and rising freight costs further pushed up the baseline for waste paper procurement costs.

Supply Side: May typically marks the traditional maintenance season for the industry; consequently, major manufacturers—including Nine Dragons, Shanying, and Liansheng—temporarily shut down multiple production bases for maintenance. Operating rates declined by 5%–8% month-on-month, leading to a temporary contraction in short-term supply. This contraction was compounded by limited new capacity additions within the industry and the ongoing consolidation (or "clearing out") of small-to-medium-sized enterprises, resulting in a marginal easing of overall supply pressure. Meanwhile, leading paper manufacturers continued to issue price-hike notices in rapid succession, fostering a strong sense of industry-wide coordination in maintaining higher price levels.

Demand Side: Although May is traditionally considered an off-season, demand proved stronger than in previous years—bolstered by inventory stocking for e-commerce promotions and sustained essential consumption—thereby providing moderate support for prices. During the mid-to-late part of May, downstream packaging manufacturers began stocking up in advance; carton orders increased by 10%–15% month-on-month, leading to heightened procurement activity for base paper. However, the recovery in end-consumer spending remained relatively weak, and export orders were lackluster. Consequently, downstream manufacturers demonstrated limited tolerance for high base paper prices, making it difficult for the market to sustain any further substantial price increases.

SunSirs paper industry analysts conclude that the price surge in corrugated paper during May was primarily driven by the strong performance of waste paper prices on the cost side. This factor, combined with the contraction in supply and the synchronized demand generated by inventory stocking for the "6.18" e-commerce shopping festival, propelled corrugated paper prices to rise steadily throughout the month. However, influenced by the traditional off-season, end-market demand remains weak—characterized by low tolerance for high prices—which is expected to exert downward pressure on pricing. Consequently, corrugated paper prices are projected to experience a narrow upward trend and fluctuate within a high range in the short term.

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