SunSirs: April Xylene Imports Plummet to Near Zero; May Domestic Spot Market Rebounds Amid Volatility

In April 2026, China's imports of mixed xylene amounted to a mere 0.097 tons—a figure that effectively dropped to zero compared to the 35,700 tons imported in March—marking a year-on-year decline of over 99%. This precipitous collapse in import volumes has sparked market concerns regarding a potential domestic supply gap. Driven by the combined effects of drastically reduced imports, scheduled maintenance at domestic production facilities, and a surge in exports, the domestic xylene spot market halted its decline in May and began to recover. The benchmark price tracked by SunSirs trended upward amidst volatility, with tightening supply emerging as the core driver of market dynamics. While prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, the medium-to-long-term trajectory will depend on the pace of demand recovery and the strength of cost-side support.

I. April Imports Drop to Near Zero: Three Key Factors Sever Supply Channels

The drastic reduction in xylene imports in April—falling to negligible levels—stemmed primarily from the convergence of three key factors. First, trade arbitrage windows have closed; the price spread between China and major source countries—such as South Korea and Japan—has remained inverted for an extended period, resulting in persistent import losses and a consequent lack of purchasing interest among traders. Second, overseas supply has contracted; geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have restricted the supply of naphtha feedstock to Asian refineries, causing operating rates at facilities in Japan and South Korea to fall below 70% and significantly diminishing their export capacity. Third, domestic self-sufficiency has improved; the concentrated commissioning of domestic refining and chemical capacity over the past two years has boosted xylene production capacity to over 15 million tons per annum. Consequently, reliance on imports has dropped from 30% to less than 5%, demonstrating a significant substitution effect. Furthermore, domestic xylene exports reached 4,441.68 tons in April—a year-on-year increase of over 170%—with this net export pattern further exacerbating the tightness in domestic supply.

II. Ample Domestic Capacity, Yet Short-Term Contraction: Tight Supply Pattern Established for May

China possesses a massive domestic xylene production capacity, totaling approximately 15.12 million tons per annum in 2026. From January to April, domestic output exceeded 4.8 million tons, with capacity utilization rates maintaining a high level of 94%, underscoring the industry's robust overall self-sufficiency. However, concentrated maintenance shutdowns across multiple production units during April and May led to a short-term contraction in output. Qingdao Lidong’s 1-million-ton/year facility underwent maintenance from late March to early May, while Jinling Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton/year facility completed its maintenance by late April. The simultaneous shutdown of these multiple units caused domestic xylene production to decline by 8% month-on-month in April; with operating rates remaining below normal levels in early May, the supply side continued to face pressure.

With imports nearly grinding to a halt—compounded by reduced domestic production due to maintenance—the domestic spot market for xylene entered a state of "tight balance" in May. Circulation volumes in the mainstream spot markets of East and South China diminished, strengthening traders' resolve to hold up prices, and spot quotations trended steadily upward.

III. Spot Market Performance on May 26: Rebound After Bottoming Out; Upstream-Downstream Price Linkage in Motion

On May 26, the SunSirs’ benchmark price for mixed xylene stood at 7,025 RMB/ton—an increase of 11.5% from the low point recorded at the end of April.

The market exhibited a "V-shaped" trajectory throughout the month, sustaining a continuous recovery following the mid-month period.Mainstream spot quotations reached 7,000–7,100 RMB/ton in East China and 7,100–7,200 RMB/ton in South China—representing an 8% to 10% increase compared to late April levels. Spot trading activity intensified, and purchasing driven by immediate demand saw an uptick.

Prices for upstream and downstream products fluctuated in tandem. The average spot price for naphtha—the upstream feedstock—reached 5,800 RMB/ton, up 5% from April, thereby bolstering cost-side support. Downstream, the price of PX (paraxylene) rose to 7,500 RMB/ton—a 6% month-on-month increase—while operating rates for PTA (purified terephthalic acid) rebounded to 85%, signaling a warming trend in demand for paraxylene. Furthermore, order volumes in downstream sectors—such as solvents and coatings—continued their steady recovery; as prices in these sectors adjusted upward in sync with xylene, price transmission across the industrial chain became increasingly fluid. IV. Imports, Exports, and Inventory: Surging Exports and Low Inventory Support Upward Price Trend

According to customs data, cumulative xylene exports for the period of January through April totaled 8,900 tons—a year-on-year increase of 178.1%. Robust demand from Southeast and South Asia has diverted domestic supply toward export markets. Regarding imports, cumulative volume for January through April reached 105,200 tons—a year-on-year decline of 33.3%. In April, imports nearly ground to a halt, effectively closing off import-based supply replenishment channels.

In terms of inventory, as of May 25, domestic xylene port inventories stood at approximately 120,000 tons—a 25% year-on-year decrease—marking a multi-year low. Corporate inventories are generally low, with most refineries prioritizing long-term contract orders; consequently, spot market inventory is scarce. This combination of low inventory levels and tightening supply provides strong support for prices.

V. Key Factors Influencing Price Fluctuations: Supply Tightness Dominates; Demand and Costs Play Supporting Roles

Bullish Factors:

Plummeting Imports + Domestic Maintenance: Imports dropped to zero in April, while maintenance shutdowns continued through May; this has resulted in a clear contraction on the supply side and a reduction in spot market circulation.

Low Inventory Levels: Both port and corporate inventories are at low levels, strengthening traders' resolve to hold firm on prices and sustaining the spot market premium.

Cost-Side Support: International crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and naphtha prices have rebounded, thereby driving up xylene production costs.

Export Growth: Robust overseas demand is diverting domestic resources toward exports, further exacerbating supply tightness.

Bearish Factors:

Weak Domestic Demand: Traditional downstream sectors—such as paints and inks—are recovering slowly, and end-user orders have fallen short of expectations, thereby capping potential price gains.

Underlying Risk of Overcapacity: From a long-term perspective, domestic production capacity remains ample; should production resume en masse following the conclusion of maintenance shutdowns, supply-side pressure is likely to re-emerge.

Macroeconomic Volatility: The broader commodities market is experiencing general volatility, and market expectations regarding economic recovery remain cautious, resulting in weak speculative demand.

VI. Market Outlook: Short-Term Upward Volatility; Medium-to-Long Term Focus on Demand Recovery

In the short term (1–2 months), xylene prices are expected to fluctuate within a generally bullish range of 6,800–7,300 RMB per ton. On the supply side, facilities undergoing maintenance in June are gradually resuming production; however, import volumes remain slow to recover, resulting in a continued tight balance in supply. On the demand side, traditional downstream industries are gradually entering their peak season, bolstering rigid demand and creating a market environment where prices are more prone to rise than to fall.

In the medium to long term (3–6 months), market trends will hinge on the strength of demand recovery and shifts in cost-side factors. Should end-market demand continue to warm up—bolstered by high-level support from production costs—xylene prices are poised to break through the 7,500 RMB/ton mark. Conversely, if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, or if international crude oil prices retreat, xylene prices may pull back from their current highs; however, supported by supply-side constraints, any potential decline is expected to be limited. Overall, the domestic xylene market has entered a supply-driven phase, where low inventory levels and a sharp reduction in imports will serve as the core pillars of market support throughout the second half of the year.

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