SunSirs: Aluminum Prices Fluctuated Within a Narrow Range in May

Aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range in May

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, aluminum ingot prices in May 2026 generally exhibited a pattern of volatile fluctuation—initially declining, then rising, and finally retreating. Throughout the period, the price center of gravity hovered around 24,400 RMB/ton, with an overall amplitude of 2.28% (based on the price recorded on May 1st). Prices peaked at 24,620 RMB/ton and bottomed out at 24,063.3 RMB/ton. As reported by the SunSirs system, as of May 22, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market stood at 24,363.33 RMB/ton. This represents a decline of 0.16% compared to the average market price on May 1st (24,403.33 RMB/ton), and a decline of 1.04% compared to the monthly high recorded on May 14th (24,620 RMB/ton); conversely, it marks an increase of 1.25% compared to the monthly lows recorded on May 7th and May 18th (24,063.33 RMB/ton).

The general rationale behind aluminum price movements in May is as follows:

This month, aluminum price trends have been driven by a divergence in domestic and international market fundamentals, maintaining an overall pattern of range-bound fluctuation. Ongoing geopolitical disruptions abroad—specifically production constraints at aluminum smelters in the Middle East and impediments to maritime transport—have tightened global supplies of aluminum raw materials. With LME aluminum inventories currently sitting at multi-year lows, the shortage premium prevailing in overseas markets continues to provide underlying support for domestic aluminum prices.

Supply and demand within the domestic market remain relatively stable; while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is subject to strict controls and monthly output has seen a slight uptick, the overall increase in supply remains limited. Downstream sectors are gradually entering their traditional off-season for consumption; consequently, end-user enterprises are showing weak purchasing enthusiasm, market transaction volume lacks follow-through, and prices—particularly in the higher ranges—are facing significant downward pressure, thereby constraining further upside potential.

In terms of market dynamics, trading activity was light during the holidays at the beginning of the month, and prices remained stable. Following the holidays, influenced by macroeconomic data, aluminum prices retreated rapidly, touching a monthly low. Subsequently, driven by a strengthening overseas market and a steady drawdown in domestic inventories, prices rebounded and surged upward. Toward the end of the month, speculative sentiment cooled as investors took profits and exited the market; coupled with the drag on demand typical of the off-season, aluminum prices gradually retreated and settled into a narrow range of fluctuation.

Market outlook

At the macro level, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and shifting expectations regarding overseas interest rate hikes have repeatedly unsettled the commodities market, further exacerbating short-term volatility in aluminum prices. Currently, the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces is relatively balanced; supportive factors on the supply side are counterbalanced by bearish factors on the demand side, leaving aluminum prices without a clear direction for a unilateral breakout in the short term.

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