SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Consolidated Last Week (May 18–22)

Price Trends

According to the SunSirs Commodity Analysis System, caustic soda prices remained generally stable last week. The average market price stood at 624 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 620 RMB/ton at the end of the week, representing a decline of 0.64% over the period and a year-on-year decrease of 28.82%.

On May 21, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 743 points, remaining unchanged from the previous day; this figure represents a 65.08% decline from the cycle's peak of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and a 5.09% increase from the cycle's low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period covers December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices remained generally stable last week. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda hovered around 570–670 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, the market remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (delivered to Xiaoshan) ranging from approximately 850 to 900 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices underwent consolidation, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) ranging from roughly 2,050 to 2,100 RMB/ton. Last week, there was no significant improvement in the supply-demand balance for caustic soda; inventory reduction among manufacturers was negligible, and overall shipments were lackluster. Downstream buyers remained cautious in accepting deliveries, causing manufacturers' shipping pace to slow down. Compounded by the current off-season for demand, production operating rates are unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term. As of May 22, prices in surrounding markets—typified by liquid caustic soda in Shandong—continued to undergo weak consolidation. The alumina sector showed no immediate signs of improvement; manufacturers in this downstream industry maintained a strong wait-and-see stance, spot market transactions remained sparse, and procurement of caustic soda remained cautious.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that, in the near term, caustic soda prices remained relatively stable last week. Domestic downstream buyers have largely adopted a "buy-on-demand" strategy, resulting in no substantial improvement in overall market demand. Caustic soda manufacturers continue to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream sectors remain resistant to current price levels. Although localized price adjustments were observed in the East China market—bolstered by support from scheduled plant maintenance—the market as a whole lacks upward momentum, reflecting an ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, it is anticipated that caustic soda prices will likely continue to trend sideways in the coming period, with specific market movements contingent upon actual demand from downstream sectors.

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