SunSirs: China Rapeseed Meal Trades Sideways with a Downward Bias Recently

According to data from SunSirs' Spot Market Monitor, the average market price for rapeseed meal stood at 2,458 RMB/ton on May 15, and 2,446 RMB/ton on May 22—a decline of 0.49%.

Supply Side: The market has shifted from a tight balance to rapid easing, with supply-side pressure continuing to dissipate. The supply of imported rapeseed has improved significantly. As the volume of rapeseed arrivals at ports increases, operating rates at coastal oil mills have rebounded notably, leading to a rise in rapeseed meal production. Consequently, the previously tight supply situation has been significantly alleviated.

Demand Side: Demand from the aquaculture sector offers some support, though its elasticity remains limited. With temperatures rising in May, the domestic aquaculture industry has entered its traditional peak season for feed consumption; consequently, feed manufacturers' rigid demand for rapeseed meal has improved on a month-over-month basis, providing temporary support to prices. However, profit margins for end-user aquaculture operations remain poor, dampening the enthusiasm of some farmers to increase feed inputs. As a result, the actual realized demand has fallen short of expectations, rendering the overall price support relatively weak. Furthermore, the soybean meal market is currently well-supplied with prices trending downward; as the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrows from its previous highs, demand for rapeseed meal as a substitute has diminished, thereby exerting downward pressure on rapeseed meal prices.

Outlook: Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue trading within a fluctuating range—facing downward pressure from rising oil mill operating rates and increased supply on the upside, while finding support from the peak aquaculture season on the downside.

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