SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Remained Generally Stable Last Week (May 11–15)

Price Trends

According to the SunSirs Commodity Analysis System, caustic soda prices remained generally stable last week. From the beginning to the end of the week, the average market price stood at 624 RMB/ton, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.5%.

On May 14, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 740 points, a decrease of 3 points from the previous day. This figure represents a 65.23% decline from the cycle's peak of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and a 4.67% increase from the cycle's low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period covers December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices remained generally stable last week. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda hovered around 580–680 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remained steady, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan ranging from approximately 850 to 900 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, prices in Inner Mongolia underwent consolidation, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) hovering around 2,200–2,300 RMB/ton. Last week saw no significant improvement in the supply-demand balance for caustic soda; inventory reduction among manufacturers was negligible, and overall shipments remained lackluster. Downstream buyers adopted a cautious stance toward accepting deliveries, causing the pace of manufacturers' shipments to slow down. Compounded by the current off-season for demand, production operating rates are unlikely to see any short-term improvement. Currently, prices in surrounding markets—typified by liquid caustic soda in Shandong—are undergoing weak consolidation. The alumina sector has yet to show any significant signs of recovery; manufacturers in this sector currently maintain a strong wait-and-see attitude, spot market transactions remain sparse, and procurement of caustic soda is being approached with considerable caution.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that, in the near term, caustic soda prices remained relatively stable last week. Domestic downstream buyers have largely been purchasing on an "as-needed" basis, and there has been no substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda manufacturers continued to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream sectors remained resistant to price levels, resulting in an ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, it is anticipated that caustic soda prices will likely continue to consolidate in the coming period, with specific market movements ultimately dependent on downstream demand.

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