SunSirs: China Domestic EVA Market Enters Downtrend Channel Since May

Since May 2026, the domestic EVA market has reached a cyclical turning point; previous price support has completely collapsed, and the market has entered an accelerated downward channel. According to data from SunSirs, as of May 14, the benchmark price for EVA stood at 12,016 RMB/ton—a decline of 7.21% compared to the 12,950 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month.

Entering May, the downward trajectory of EVA prices intensified significantly. Companies such as Jiangsu Sierbang and Formosa Plastics (Ningbo) successively lowered their ex-factory prices, while traders increasingly offered price concessions to boost sales volume. In the short term, the moving average system has formed a typical "bearish alignment," with the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages all simultaneously turning downward, and the deviation between current prices and the moving averages continues to widen.

Weakening supply-and-demand fundamentals are the primary driving force behind this round of market decline. On the supply side, operating rates at domestic EVA production facilities remain high; units previously undergoing maintenance have gradually resumed operations, leading to a continuous increase in market supply. Consequently, inventory pressure on traders has become increasingly apparent. To accelerate cash flow recovery, some enterprises have actively lowered prices to offload inventory, thereby exacerbating the downward pressure on market prices. On the demand side, the weak trend persists; orders from downstream sectors—such as photovoltaics and footwear materials—have fallen short of expectations. Photovoltaic encapsulant film manufacturers are limiting their procurement to immediate, essential needs and show low tolerance for high-priced raw materials. Simultaneously, the recovery of end-market demand remains sluggish, prompting most downstream enterprises to adopt a "buy-as-needed" procurement strategy. Lacking support from large-scale restocking activities, and amidst a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand, market prices currently lack effective support.

Looking ahead, the EVA market may experience a minor "oversold rebound" in the short term, though the potential upside of such a rebound is likely to be limited. On one hand, following the recent rapid decline, lower-priced inventory may attract essential procurement from downstream buyers, and traders may engage in temporary price-supportive behaviors, potentially leading to a modest price correction upward. On the other hand, supply-side pressures persist, and downstream demand has yet to show any substantial signs of recovery, making it difficult for market confidence to be restored quickly.

Overall, the current EVA market remains characterized by weak supply-and-demand fundamentals and a predominantly bearish sentiment. Any short-term rebound is unlikely to alter the overarching downward trend. Market participants should focus closely on marginal shifts in supply-and-demand fundamentals, as well as the impact of the broader macroeconomic environment on downstream demand, while remaining vigilant against the risk of further price declines.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.