SunSirs: Acrylic Acid Still Has Room for Further Downside in the Near Term

Price trend

Recently, the acrylic acid market has continued its downward trend. Data from SunSirs indicates that on May 12, the benchmark price for acrylic acid stood at 9,316.67 RMB/ton—marking a cumulative decline of 8.21% compared to the beginning of the month (10,150 RMB/ton on May 5).

Recently, acrylic acid prices have exhibited a continuous downward trend: on May 5, the price stood at 10,150 RMB/ton; on May 8, it plunged 3.06% to 9,516.67 RMB/ton; subsequently, it continued to edge lower, falling to 9,316.67 RMB/ton on May 11—a daily decline of 1.76%—with the market downturn showing no clear signs of slowing down yet.

Supply and Demand: Limited cost support; insufficient follow-through in demand

Cost Side: Raw material propylene experienced volatile consolidation this week. Cost-side support remained relatively stable, with no significant collapse or surge in costs observed; consequently, the impact on acrylic acid prices was largely neutral. As of May 12, the benchmark price for propylene—according to SunSirs—stood at 9,264.33 RMB/ton, representing a 2.42% decline compared to the beginning of the month (9,494.33 RMB/ton).

Supply Side: Offers from acrylic acid manufacturers and holders continue to soften, with some suppliers offering price concessions to move inventory. The pressure from circulating market supplies has intensified, and traders—keen to offload stock—are exerting further downward pressure on market prices.

Demand Side: Downstream demand remains lackluster, with end-users limiting their purchases primarily to immediate necessities. The market lacks support from concentrated restocking activity; furthermore, operating rates in downstream industries have shown no significant improvement. Consequently, overall purchasing sentiment remains cautious, making it difficult to establish an effective floor for prices.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the acrylic acid market continues to face a weak supply-demand landscape, and the downward trend is highly likely to persist.

Barring any significant upward momentum driven by feedstock propylene or a concentrated surge in downstream demand, acrylic acid prices are likely to continue their downward trajectory, trending toward the 8,800–9,000 RMB/ton range. The 9,000 RMB/ton mark serves as a critical short-term psychological support level; a breach of this threshold could accelerate the decline toward the 8,800 RMB/ton level. Conversely, if the market later witnesses a wave of concentrated plant maintenance shutdowns or a rebound in downstream orders—potentially coupled with an unexpected strengthening of cost-side factors—the market's downward trend may gradually decelerate; however, the likelihood of a short-term reversal to an upward trend remains low.

Going forward, key areas of focus should include trends in propylene feedstock, factory operating dynamics, and the purchasing pace of downstream end-users, in order to timely capture shifts in market trends.

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