SunSirs: Coke Market Operates with a Stable-to-Firm Trend

On the Supply Side: Operating rates at coking plants continue to improve, resulting in a slight increase in coke supply. With downstream steel mills maintaining relatively low inventory levels, the support provided by their rigid demand for coke remains solid. Coking plants are actively shipping their products; overall, they currently face no inventory pressure, and the coke supply landscape is situated in a state of tight equilibrium. Currently, the mainstream price for quasi-Grade I dry-quenched coke in the Shanxi region is quoted at 1,585–1,640 RMB/ton.

On May 12, the SunSirs benchmark price for coke stood at 1,560.00 RMB/ton, remaining unchanged from the beginning of the month.

On the Demand Side: Steel mills are maintaining high and stable operating rates for their blast furnaces, and hot metal production currently remains at elevated levels, sustaining a steady demand for coke. In the short term, steel mills are demonstrating strong enthusiasm for replenishing their inventories.

Regarding Ports: The spot market for coke at ports is trending with a stable-to-firm bias. Inventory levels at the two major ports have risen slightly, market trading activity has warmed up, and the pace at which traders are aggregating cargo at ports has accelerated. Currently, the mainstream cash ex-warehouse price for quasi-Grade I wet-quenched coke at ports is quoted at 1,560 RMB/ton.

Comprehensive Outlook: Coking plants are experiencing robust sales. Furthermore, with prices for the raw material—coking coal—continuing to edge upward, some coking plants are demonstrating a strong inclination to hold firm on prices and push for increases. Although the May Day holiday has concluded—leading to a slight decline in steel mills' stockpiling demand compared to the preceding period—the average daily hot metal output at steel mills remains at a relatively high level. Moreover, total social inventories continue to be in a downward phase, ensuring that steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing coke remains high. The third round of proposed coke price hikes is expected to be fully implemented in the near future. Consequently, the coke market is projected to operate with a stable-to-firm trend in the short term. Moving forward, market participants should continue to closely monitor the impact of factors such as steel mill production status, raw coal price trends, macroeconomic policies, transportation conditions, changes in coke inventory levels, the coke supply-demand balance, and profit margins within the coke and steel sectors on the overall coke market.

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