SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Downward in April

Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Analysis System, caustic soda prices exhibited a weak trend this month. The average market price stood at 738 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 628 RMB/ton at the end of the month—a decline of 14.91%, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.18%.

On April 29, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 737 points, down 2 points from the previous day. This figure represents a 65.37% decline from the cycle's peak of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021), while marking a 4.24% increase from the cycle's low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period covers December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices trended downward this month. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda hovered around 540–640 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remained stable, with mainstream delivered-to-Xiaoshan quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda ranging from approximately 720 to 850 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, prices in Inner Mongolia underwent consolidation, with mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) sitting around 2,200–2,300 RMB/ton. This month saw a rebound in the operating rate of caustic soda production facilities; however, inventory reduction efforts by manufacturers were largely ineffective, resulting in a trend of accumulating stockpiles. Downstream buyers remained cautious in their purchasing, causing a slowdown in the pace of shipments from manufacturers. Specifically, alumina producers in Shanxi and Henan demonstrated significantly reduced enthusiasm for purchasing liquid caustic soda. Currently, prices in surrounding markets—typified by the liquid caustic soda market in Shandong—continued to weaken. With no immediate signs of improvement in the alumina sector, manufacturers were adopting a strong wait-and-see stance; spot market transactions remained sparse, leading to a cautious approach regarding caustic soda procurement.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices trended lower recently; domestic downstream consumers were largely purchasing on an as-needed basis, and there had been no substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda manufacturers continued to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream buyers remained resistant to the price levels. As the May Day holiday approaches, most enterprises are prioritizing inventory reduction amidst an ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, it is anticipated that caustic soda prices will likely continue to exhibit a weak trend in the near term, with the specific trajectory dependent on demand within the downstream market.

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