SunSirs: China Live Pig Prices Bottom Out and Rebound in April; Upward Momentum Lacks Strength in May

According to spot market data from SunSirs, the average price of domestic and imported commercial live pigs bottomed out and staged a modest rebound in April 2024. The average price stood at 9.70 RMB/kg on April 1st and rose to 9.83 RMB/kg by April 30th, marking a monthly increase of 1.34%.

In early April, the domestic live pig market remained under pressure from a persistent imbalance of strong supply and weak demand. Consequently, pig prices continued to trend downward, with prices in many regions across the country falling below the 9 RMB/kg threshold. Amidst continued sluggish demand in the downstream meat market and a confluence of bearish factors, domestic live pig prices repeatedly hit new multi-year lows.

By mid-April, the sustained sharp decline in domestic pig prices prompted breeders to become reluctant to sell (holding out for better prices), leading to a subsequent reduction in market supply. This shift—coupled with live pig futures prices bottoming out and rebounding—boosted market confidence slightly. As a result, domestic live pig prices collectively halted their decline, stabilized, and began a modest upward trend.

In late April, with upcoming holidays approaching, downstream slaughterhouses began their concentrated stockpiling efforts. Breeders maintained their reluctance to sell and their resolve to support prices; meanwhile, regions that had previously experienced sharp declines saw continued "catch-up" price increases. Consequently, domestic live pig prices continued their upward trajectory. By April 30th, the average price for domestic and imported commercial live pigs reached 9.83 RMB/kg—an increase of 8.98% from the low point recorded in April.

Throughout April, domestic corn prices fluctuated within a narrow range, while live pig prices first fell and then rose. By the end of April, the domestic pig-to-grain price ratio had generally recovered to the vicinity of 4.2:1. Although this ratio saw some recovery, the domestic live pig breeding industry remains in a state of deep financial loss.

SunSirs' live pig product analyst observes: A temporary tightening of supply provided the necessary support for domestic pig prices to bottom out and rebound. However, from a comprehensive perspective, the current inventory of domestic breeding sows remains high. Consequently, the supply in the domestic live pig market is expected to remain ample in the near future. Furthermore, given the continued sluggishness in downstream meat market demand, domestic live pig prices lack sufficient momentum for sustained growth. It is projected that in May, the average domestic live pig price will continue to fluctuate around the 10 RMB/kg mark.

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