SunSirs: Ethylene Glycol Prices Strengthened Again in Late April, and the Price Outlook in May

In late April, ethylene glycol prices trended higher amidst market volatility

Ethylene glycol prices rebounded in late April 2026. According to data from SunSirs, as of April 29, the average domestic price for oil-based ethylene glycol stood at 5,138.33 RMB/ton—an increase of 2.15% compared to the average price of 5,030 RMB/ton recorded on April 21, and a rise of 0.35% compared to the average price of 5,120.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

Regarding port-side Ethylene Glycol, as of the 29th, basis quotes for spot contracts (minimum 500 tons) at the ports fluctuated in tandem with futures market movements. Throughout the week, intraday basis quotes for spot contracts traded within a range of +95 to +110. By the close of trading, basis quotes for this week's contracts (deliverable by April 30) stood at +105 to +115 (at Changjiang International Warehouse), while basis quotes for late-May contracts (deliverable by May 25) were at +125. The market basis showed a slight strengthening during the day.

Domestic spot prices for coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol—offered on a bulk, tax-inclusive, and ex-works basis—are currently quoted at 4,520–4,680 RMB/ton for full-truckload factory pickups.

Regarding internationalethylene glycol markets, as of April 28, negotiated CIF prices settled around $605 per ton for shipments bound for China, and around $700 per ton for shipments bound for Southeast Asia.

Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Changes: April 2026

As of April 27, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China stood at 793,000 tons. This represents a decrease of 160,000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 953,000 tons recorded on March 30.

An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Price Rebound of Ethylene Glycol in Late April 2026

By the end of April 2026, Ethylene Glycol prices began to recover. This resurgence was driven primarily by the convergence of four key factors: a sharp decline in imports resulting from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, low operating rates at domestic production facilities, continuous inventory depletion at ports, and persistently high crude oil costs. These factors were further bolstered by a marginal recovery in demand following the holiday period and upward pressure from capital inflows, collectively propelling prices to rebound from their lows and trend stronger.

On the supply side, imports of ethylene glycol have contracted. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, leading to delays in arrivals from the Middle East; consequently, the volume of ethylene glycol expected to arrive in China during April and May is projected to be merely 300,000 to 350,000 tons—a year-on-year decline of nearly 50%. Given that 65% of my country's imports originate from the Middle East (with Saudi Arabia accounting for 55% of that total), the supply deficit is widening rapidly. Furthermore, as ethylene glycol prices in neighboring countries have become more attractive, re-export volumes reached 100,000 tons in April, resulting in a further reduction in the actual volume of material reaching the domestic market. Regarding domestic supply, production of oil-based ethylene glycol continues to face challenges due to elevated crude oil prices and persistent financial losses; as of late April, multiple production units remained under maintenance or operating at reduced loads, keeping the overall operating rate hovering around 55%. Although the operating rate for coal-based ethylene glycol production rose to 61% following spring maintenance, the overall release of production capacity remains limited, and several units still have scheduled maintenance plans in place. Consequently, the overall operating rate across the industry remains weak. The domestic spot market is tight, with a reduced volume of spot goods in circulation, leading traders to demonstrate a strong inclination to hold firm on prices.

On the cost front, elevated crude oil prices provide strong support, shifting the cost center for ethylene-based ethylene glycol upward. Although coal-based ethylene glycol retains a cost advantage, strengthening oil prices have driven up overall chemical product prices, leading to a valuation recovery within the sector.

On the demand side, expectations for a robust peak season in May are intensifying; the market is preemptively pricing in a demand recovery, with speculative capital flowing in to drive prices upward. Following the holiday period, orders for weaving and dyeing operations have gradually rebounded, while essential demand remains stable. Polyester inventories have declined; with greige fabric stocks depleted, the willingness to restock has strengthened, accelerating the pace of ethylene glycol procurement.

Regarding policy and market sentiment, strict domestic controls on the construction of new coal-based ethylene glycol facilities—coupled with efforts to eliminate outdated production capacity—have alleviated the downward pressure that the cost advantage of coal-based production previously exerted on price upside potential. Meanwhile, as conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, the market's "geopolitical premium" has risen, fostering strong bullish sentiment among investors.

Market Outlook

The rebound in ethylene glycol prices in late April was the result of tightening supply (the primary driver), coupled with cost support, marginal improvements in demand, and bullish market sentiment; consequently, the supply-demand landscape has shifted from a state of surplus to one of tight equilibrium. In May, assuming the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, import volumes remain low, and inventory destocking continues, ethylene glycol prices are highly likely to exhibit strong, volatile performance.

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