SunSirs: China Rapeseed Meal Fluctuates Downward as Supply-Demand Tensions Intensify

Throughout April, the rapeseed meal market exhibited a volatile downward trend characterized by an initial decline, followed by a rebound, and a subsequent retreat. According to spot market data from SunSirs, the average market price for rapeseed meal stood at 2,546 yuan/ton on April 1st; by April 27th, this average had fallen to 2,514 yuan/ton—a decline of 1.26%.

Early April: A rapid search for a bottom. Market sentiment leaned bearish, driven primarily by the conclusion of pre-holiday stockpiling among downstream users—leading to a temporary weakening of demand—and by strong expectations regarding the imminent arrival of imported rapeseed shipments.

Mid-April: Bottoming out and rebounding to a high. The rebound was driven mainly by a decline in operating rates at domestic oil mills and low spot inventories of rapeseed meal. This was compounded by a simultaneous strengthening in soybean meal prices, which provided momentum for rapeseed meal to follow suit and rise.

Late April: Peaking and retreating. The subsequent decline was primarily attributed to the gradual realization of expected rapeseed imports—as shipments arrived at ports—and a subsequent recovery in oil mill operating rates, which brought supply-side pressure to the fore. Simultaneously, the peak season for downstream aquaculture demand had not yet fully commenced, resulting in insufficient support from immediate, essential demand.

In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are likely to maintain a pattern of range-bound fluctuation. If future import supplies continue to increase while demand fails to show significant improvement, the price center of gravity may continue to drift lower; conversely, if the peak demand season kicks off with greater-than-expected vigor, it holds the potential to trigger a temporary rebound in prices.

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