SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Prices Dip Before Rebounding in April; Short-Term Outlook Points to Narrow, Upward-Biased Fluctuations

According to monitoring data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, corrugated paper prices in April 2026 generally followed a trend of initial weakness followed by stabilization, culminating in a slight rebound during the latter half of the month. As of April 28, the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper stood at 2,698 RMB per ton—a decrease of 4.19% compared to the average price recorded on April 1.

Cost Factors: In April, waste paper prices in the Zhejiang region initially rose before stabilizing; domestic paper mills mirrored this trend in their waste paper procurement. On April 28, the average purchase price for Grade A yellow cardboard waste in Zhejiang was 1,607 RMB per ton—an increase of 1.71% compared to the average price on April 1. During early April, heavy rainfall in southern China disrupted waste paper collection efforts; consequently, waste paper baling stations became reluctant to sell, opting instead to stockpile inventory, which drove a continuous rise in waste paper prices. By late April, however, paper mills faced elevated inventory levels and sought to drive down prices while procuring stock; this resulted in a slight retreat in waste paper prices, which subsequently stabilized and traded mostly sideways. Overall, these cost factors provided a floor of support for corrugated paper prices; however, due to weak market demand, they were insufficient to trigger a broader price hike.

Supply Factors: Throughout early to mid-April, operating rates at corrugated paper mills remained high, with many facilities running at near-full capacity, ensuring an ample supply within the industry. The market experienced a clear imbalance of supply exceeding demand, prompting many paper mills to offer price concessions to boost sales volume, thereby placing downward pressure on prices. In late April, leading paper manufacturers announced plans to halt operations for maintenance between late April and early May. This announcement heightened expectations of a tightening market supply. Coupled with tentative price hike attempts by major mills and a temporary easing of inventory pressures, corrugated paper prices halted their decline and began to edge upward.

Demand Factors: April typically marks the traditional off-season for the packaging industry, resulting in generally weak market demand. Domestic orders from the e-commerce, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and food and beverage sectors saw only limited growth. In overseas markets, volatility in the international geopolitical and economic landscape led to sluggish demand for export packaging. Downstream cardboard box manufacturers operated at low utilization rates and adopted a relatively cautious approach to stocking inventory, focusing primarily on "just-in-time" procurement to meet immediate operational needs rather than engaging in large-scale inventory replenishment. According to analysts at the Business Society specializing in the paper sector, as the May Day holiday approaches, paper mills continue to undergo maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises are ramping up pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slight uptick in market demand. Consequently, corrugated paper prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow, upward-trending range in the short term.

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