SunSirs: Futures Market Performance Was Lackluster, and the Silicomanganese Market Was Trending Weaker

Price trend

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the silicomanganese market trended slightly downward last week. Futures market performance was lackluster, oscillating recently within the 6,200 RMB/ton range. Steel mills in southern China set their procurement prices at approximately 6,200 RMB/ton, while Hebei Iron & Steel Group (HBIS) set its price at 6,300 RMB/ton. Alloy producers demonstrated a high level of acceptance toward these prices, leading to a shift in market sentiment. On the cost side, coke prices remained firm; although manganese ore prices consolidated with a slight downward bias, cost-side support for the market remained intact. Data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System indicates that as of last weekend, the market quotation for silicomanganese (specifications: FeMn68Si18) in the Ningxia region ranged from approximately 5,900 to 6,000 RMB/ton. The average market price stood at 5,950.00 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month decline of 0.70%.

Fundamental Analysis

Supply Side: This month, alloy plants in the major northern production regions—Inner Mongolia and Ningxia—have successively begun scaling back or halting production. Most enterprises are implementing a 30% production cut target, while a number of other plants have directly shut down their furnaces for maintenance. Over ten silicon-manganese plants in the north have issued announcements regarding production suspensions or reductions. As of April 24, preliminary statistics indicate that the daily production volume in the north has decreased by 4,446 tons this month compared to the beginning of the month; it is estimated that these production cuts in the north will impact monthly output by more than 100,000 tons.

In the southern production regions, high electricity rates and soaring manganese ore costs have led to widespread losses among local plants, prompting them to join the ranks of those cutting production. Specifically, electricity rates in Guangxi exceed 0.6 RMB per kWh, while those in the Xingyi and Yunnan regions hover around 0.5 RMB per kWh. Consequently, a major plant in the South has idled three 36,000 kVA submerged arc furnaces and one 25,500 kVA furnace—a move affecting a monthly silicomanganese alloy production capacity of 27,000 tons—and is unlikely to resume operations in the short term.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide stood at 30.86% last week—an increase of 1.96 percentage points from the previous week. The average daily output reached 24,797 tons, an increase of 782 tons.

Based on incomplete statistics, as of April 24, the total inventory held by silicomanganese enterprises nationwide amounted to 377,000 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 500 tons. Specifically, inventories were distributed as follows: Inner Mongolia held 53,000 tons (a decrease of 1,000 tons month-on-month); Ningxia held 306,000 tons (an increase of 6,000 tons); Guangxi held 2,000 tons (a decrease of 500 tons); Guizhou held 1,000 tons (a decrease of 500 tons); the Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi region held 6,500 tons (a decrease of 2,000 tons); and the Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing region held 8,500 tons (a decrease of 1,500 tons).

Upstream Costs: Last week, the manganese ore market generally exhibited a volatile yet weak trend. Downstream ferromanganese prices fluctuated at low levels, prompting a cautious procurement stance among manufacturers; strong sentiment to drive down prices prevailed, with purchasing activities largely limited to restocking based on immediate operational needs. Market transaction performance was lackluster, and trading activity showed no significant improvement. Manganese ore prices edged downward slightly—declining by approximately 0.5 RMB/MTU—though the overall magnitude of fluctuation remained limited.

Data indicates that as of the 24th, manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port were quoted at 43–46 RMB/MTU for Australian lump ore, 40.5–41.5 RMB/MTU for semi-carbonate ore, and 45 RMB/MTU for Gabonese lump ore; at Qinzhou Port, prices stood at 45.5 RMB/MTU for Australian lump ore, 39–39.5 RMB/MTU for semi-carbonate ore, and 44.5 RMB/MTU for Gabonese lump ore.

Regarding Demand: HBIS Group's April pricing for silicomanganese is set at 6,300 RMB/ton, with an inquiry price of 6,300 RMB/ton; the pricing established in early April was 6,550 RMB/ton. (The pricing for April 2025 was 5,950 RMB/ton). The procurement volume for silicomanganese in April totals 8,500 tons (including 4,500 tons for medium and heavy plates). The procurement volume in early April was 5,100 tons (the silicomanganese procurement volume for April 2025 was 11,400 tons). A steel mill in Jiangxi Province has set its silicomanganese price at 6,220 RMB/ton, with a tender quantity of 4,000 tons; the terms are delivered-to-plant (including tax) via acceptance draft, subject to base-content adjustments.

The latest tender price for silicon-manganese alloy at a steel mill in Jiangxi Province has been finalized at 6,220 RMB/ton (acceptance payment terms), subject to base-content adjustments, for a total quantity of 4,000 tons. Additionally, it is reported that Jiangsu Yonggang plans to tender for 2,000 tons of silicon-manganese alloy; Zhongtian Nantong plans to tender for 6,000 tons; and a steel mill in Shandong Province is conducting a long-term agreement tender for the year 2026 for SiMn 6517 alloy, with a total volume of 84,000 tons.

Market Outlook

Overall, there remains room for further reductions in ferrosilicomanganese output, and it is expected to take some time before alloy production volumes recover to the levels seen at the beginning of the month. Although manganese ore prices have softened slightly, they generally remain at elevated levels; meanwhile, expectations for a third round of price hikes for coke have strengthened, ensuring that cost-side support remains intact. While the "Golden March, Silver April" peak season is drawing to a close, restocking activities by steel mills ahead of the May Day holiday are still expected to provide temporary market support. SunSirs forecasts that, in the short term, the ferrosilicomanganese market will likely continue to exhibit a pattern of range-bound fluctuation.

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