SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Lower Last Week (April 20–24)

Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Analysis System, caustic soda prices exhibited a weak trend last week. The average market price stood at 716 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 678 RMB/ton by the end of the week, marking a price decline of 5.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.23%.

On April 23, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 744 points—a decrease of 3 points from the previous day. This represents a 65.04% decline from the cycle's historical high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021), while marking a 5.23% increase from the cycle's historical low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period covers December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices trended downward last week. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda hovered around 600–700 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remained stable, with mainstream delivered-to-Xiaoshan quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda ranging from approximately 970 to 990 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, prices in Inner Mongolia underwent consolidation, with mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (calculated on a 100% basis) sitting around 2,200–2,300 RMB/ton. Last week saw a rebound in the operating rate of caustic soda production facilities; however, inventory reduction efforts by manufacturers were largely ineffective, resulting in a trend of accumulating stockpiles. Downstream buyers remained cautious in their purchasing, causing a slowdown in the pace of shipments from manufacturers. Specifically, alumina producers in Shanxi and Henan provinces demonstrated significantly weak enthusiasm for purchasing liquid caustic soda. Currently, prices in surrounding markets—typified by the liquid caustic soda market in Shandong—continue to trend downward. With no immediate signs of improvement in the alumina sector, manufacturers are currently adopting a strong wait-and-see stance; spot market transactions remain scarce, leading to a cautious approach regarding caustic soda procurement.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that, in the near term—specifically over the past week—caustic soda prices have trended downward. Domestic downstream buyers are currently adhering to a "buy-on-demand" strategy, and there has been no substantial improvement in overall market demand. Caustic soda manufacturers continue to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream sectors remain resistant to current price levels. As the May Day holiday approaches, most enterprises are prioritizing inventory reduction. Based on the interplay between supply and demand, it is broadly anticipated that caustic soda prices will likely continue to move sideways in the coming period; the specific trajectory will ultimately depend on demand within the downstream market.

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