SunSirs: Back to Fundamentals: Ethylene Glycol Prices Fluctuated with a Downward Bias in April

In April, ethylene glycol prices trended lower amidst volatile trading

In April 2026, ethylene glycol prices exhibited a volatile yet generally weaker trend. According to data from SunSirs, as of April 23, the average domestic price for oil-based ethylene glycol stood at 5,058.33 RMB/ton—a decline of 1.21% compared to the average price of 5,120.33 RMB/ton recorded on April 1.

Regarding port-side Ethylene Glycol (EG), as of the 23rd, basis quotes for spot contracts (minimum 500 tons) fluctuated in tandem with futures market movements. Throughout the week, intraday basis quotes for spot contracts traded within a range of +26 to +35. By the close of trading, the basis quote for this week's contracts (deliverable by April 24) stood at +28 (at Changjiang International Terminal); quotes for the "Double Terminals" delivery option were slightly lower, ranging from +24 to +25. Basis quotes for late-May contracts (deliverable by May 25) ranged from +73 to +75. Intraday market basis levels followed an inverted "V" trajectory—rising initially before subsequently declining.

Domestically produced coal-based polyester-grade Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) spot cargoes—offered on a bulk, tax-inclusive, and ex-works basis—were trading at full-truckload factory-gate prices ranging from 4,500 to 4,650 RMB per ton.

Regarding international MEG markets, as of April 22, recent shipments were being negotiated and concluded at CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) prices hovering around 615 USD per ton.

Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Changes in April 2026

As of April 23, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at major ports in East China stood at 843,000 tons. This represents a decrease of 110,000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 953,000 tons recorded on March 30.

An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Volatile and Weak Performance of Ethylene Glycol Prices in April

In April 2026, Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) prices exhibited a volatile and generally weak trend. This was primarily driven by the confluence of three factors: diminishing cost-side support, marginally looser supply, and intensifying negative feedback from the demand side. Consequently, the market shifted away from the strong expectations previously fueled by geopolitical conflicts, returning instead to a dynamic driven by the actual interplay of supply and demand.

With demand from downstream sectors remaining sluggish, the polyester market experienced negative feedback in April. The comprehensive operating rate for polyester production declined from 88% at the beginning of the month to a range of 82%–85% by month-end. The filament segment saw the most significant production cuts, with major manufacturers reducing output by 15%–20%. Elevated inventories of polyester filament and persistently sluggish sales—with sales-to-production ratios for FDY and DTY hovering at a mere 20%–30%—forced factories to lower operating loads in an effort to deplete stock, thereby weakening the immediate demand for ethylene glycol.

On the supply side, while ethylene glycol imports have declined, domestic production has rebounded, resulting in a relatively looser marginal supply situation. In April, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East temporarily de-escalated, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed; consequently, market panic regarding potential disruptions to import supplies has subsided. Although ethylene glycol arrivals at ports remained relatively low in April, strengthening expectations for a recovery in import volumes in the coming period have exerted downward pressure on forward prices. Regarding domestic supply, spring maintenance shutdowns for coal-based ethylene glycol facilities have concluded, and improved profit margins have driven operating rates back up to the 60–65% range, establishing this sector as the primary source of supply. As for oil-based ethylene glycol, despite operating rates hovering at a mere 53–55%—due to high crude oil prices and severe financial losses—the restart of several production units in late April has led to a marginal increase in overall supply.

Market outlook

In the near term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, crude oil price volatility, polyester plant operating rates, and the pace of inventory drawdown at ports remain key variables. For May 2026, Ethylene Glycol (EG) is projected to follow a trend characterized by an initial dip followed by a rebound—specifically, a volatile market with an upward bias. The primary drivers are the continued depletion of inventories, solid cost support, and tight supply; however, weak demand and cautious capital flows are expected to cap the extent of any price gains.

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