SunSirs: China PET Bottle Chips Fluctuate at High Levels Last Week; Weekly Average Price Rises Month on Month

I. Price Trends Last Week (April 20–24)

Spot Market (East China, Water-Bottle Grade): Prices started the week at 8,700–8,800 RMB/ton, strengthened mid-week to 8,850–9,000 RMB/ton, and retreated slightly by week's end to 8,750–8,850 RMB/ton. The weekly average price rose by approximately 2% compared to the previous week.

Futures Market (Bottle Chip Main Contract PR):

April 21: 8,176; April 22: 8,232; April 23: 8,368; April 24 (11:29 AM): 8,286 (-1.29%).

The overall trend was "initial rise followed by a correction," trading within a range of 8,092–8,448 RMB/ton.

II. Key Market Drivers

Cost Side (Strong Support):

Crude Oil: Recurring geopolitical volatility in the Middle East kept Brent crude fluctuating at a high range of $110–$120 per barrel, thereby driving up PX costs.

PTA: Several production units (including those of Hengli and Yisheng) underwent maintenance, tightening supply. PTA prices rose by approximately 3% for the week, reinforcing the rigid support for bottle chip costs.

Supply Side (Tight):

The operating rate for bottle chip production stood at approximately 75%. With several major manufacturers undergoing maintenance, spot market circulation remained tight, and manufacturers demonstrated a strong willingness to hold firm on prices.

Social inventories remained at low levels; traders were reluctant to sell, keeping spot market quotes firm.

Demand Side (Weak Recovery):

Essential demand from the beverage and packaging sectors remained stable; however, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high prices. Most transactions consisted of small, essential-demand orders, while large-volume orders were approached with caution.

As the May Day holiday approached, restocking activities among end-users were moderate, with no concentrated inventory replenishment, thereby limiting the upside potential for prices.

Price Summary:

Fluctuating Upward, Followed by Correction: Cost factors and tight spot market conditions provided strong support for prices; however, lackluster demand dampened the extent of the price gains, leading to a slowdown in transaction volume at higher price levels.

Futures-Spot Linkage: Futures prices rose initially before falling back; spot prices followed the upward trend but experienced a smaller magnitude of decline, resulting in a slight strengthening of the basis spread. III. Short-Term Outlook (April 25–30)

Range Forecast: Spot Prices (Short-Term: 1–2 Weeks)—Predominantly high-level consolidation within the range of 8,500–9,000 RMB/ton. Barring a collapse in production costs, a sharp decline is unlikely; conversely, without a surge in demand, a significant rally is equally improbable.

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