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SunSirs: Global Mineral Competition Shift: Technology-Driven Breakthroughs for China's Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel Supply Chain Resilience

April 24 2026 09:07:14 China Geological Survey (lkhu)

Influenced by factors such as resource endowments and geopolitical considerations, some strategic minerals in China are facing supply and demand contradictions. Although significant progress has been made in mineral extraction technology, reserve and regulation mechanisms, the country still faces the problem of insufficient supply in the long run. Technological innovation is becoming the key breakthrough to solve this problem. When technological innovation can continuously reduce the grade of resource extraction, improve the efficiency of recycling and create alternative solutions, the traditional concept of "scarcity of resources" will be replaced by "technological control", which can lay a solid foundation for China's resource security.

PART.01

Our country still faces the dual constraints of resource supply shortage and technological dependence.

Our country has a large demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel and other mineral resources. The frequent policy changes in resource countries and the construction of supply chain alliances by Western countries have directly increased the difficulty of our country in obtaining these mineral resources. In addition, some mining and manufacturing technologies are still below the international level or are subject to others. When technology dependence and resource blockade reinforce each other, the systematic risk of the resource security system gradually becomes apparent. The rise of resource nationalism. Indonesia has gradually banned the export of nickel ore since 2020, and further imposed a 10% export tax on nickel iron in 2024, aiming to force foreign capital to build smelters locally. The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has restricted exports or imposed tariffs multiple times on the grounds of "protecting strategic resources". Russia, Canada, Australia and other major mining powers have increased their control over their own mineral resources by raising investment thresholds and strengthening policy regulation. In addition, the Western countries, led by the United States, have adopted a "small yard and high walls" strategy, and have established or joined key mineral alliances, attempting to build a supply chain of key minerals that excludes our country. The core technology bottlenecks restrict self-control. Most of the homogeneous ion exchange membranes needed for lithium extraction from salt lakes rely on foreign enterprises, resulting in a high comprehensive cost of the Qinghai salt lake project in our country. In the rare earth field, the import rate of precision centrifugal extraction machines used in the production line of high-purity neodymium oxide is high. The upstream and downstream of the rare earth industry chain are seriously fragmented. Although our country controls 91% of the global rare earth refining capacity, it still relies on foreign patent technology for some high-end neodymium iron boron permanent magnetic materials. If most of China's neodymium iron boron enterprises are "blocked" by foreign enterprise patents, enterprises will also face a severe test of survival and market share. The lack of international discourse power and supply chain resilience. The EU's "Critical Raw Materials Act" requires that at least 10% of strategic raw materials be recycled domestically by 2030 and 40% be processed domestically. More importantly, although Chinese enterprises account for 48% of the global share of related technology patents, their voice in the formulation of international standards is insufficient. This asymmetric situation of "patent advantage" and "standard disadvantage" severely restricts the promotion of Chinese technology worldwide. In terms of pricing power, the daily average trading volume of nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is only 1.2 million lots, less than one third of the London Metal Exchange, forcing domestic enterprises to bear the fluctuations of the international market.

PART.02

Technological innovation can enhance the initiative of mineral competition.

The global competition over mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel is undergoing a profound shift. While the geopolitical contest over resource endowments remains a focus, the core variables that will determine the future competitive landscape are gradually evolving from "who controls the minerals" to "who controls the technology." The fundamental logic of this transformation lies in the systematic dilution of the scarcity of key resources by technological advancements.

Lithium extraction technology from mica and deep-sea mining are redefining resource boundaries. China's lithium extraction technology from mica has made a breakthrough through the "sulfate roasting-selective leaching" process, which has increased the recovery rate of low-grade ore with a grade of 0.3% from 40% to 75%, equivalent to adding 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent resource reserves. At the same time, China's cobalt-rich crust mining system has a 7,000-meter-level hydraulic coring device that has passed the pressure test, which can obtain cobalt-rich crust samples of 50×200 millimeters; the "Kunlong" deep-sea heavy-load mining vehicle has a working capacity of 3,000 meters; the "Ha牛Ⅱ" deep-sea large-hole deep-pressure coring drilling system has successfully drilled 231 meters in the South China Sea ultra-deep water of more than 2,000 meters, refreshing the world's deep-sea seabed drilling depth. It can be seen that technological progress is redefining the definition of " Recoverable Reserves " in traditional resource economics.

Diversification of power battery technology routes to reduce resource constraints. In recent years, power battery technology has shown a diversified development trend of "complementarity + iteration + substitution". The evolution of lithium-rich batteries towards higher nickel and lower cobalt/no cobalt, the continuous increase in market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the acceleration of sodium-ion battery industrialization, all indicate that technological innovation is reducing the dependence on key resources. The cobalt content of high-nickel low-cobalt lithium-rich batteries has been reduced from 20% in the early stage to 6%; Tesla's 4680 battery even adopts a nickel-manganese-cobalt positive electrode without cobalt; the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased from 32% in 2020 to 68% in 2023, which is equivalent to reducing cobalt demand by 18,000 tons per year; the first generation of sodium batteries (160 Wh/kg) from Ningde Times will reduce the production cost to 0.5 yuan/Wh in 2024, which can replace 20% of the lithium battery demand for energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles.

Metal-air batteries open a non-traditional resource path. Metal-air batteries achieve a fundamental breakthrough in mineral resources utilization through “abundant elements replacing scarce metals”. Significant progress has been made in such batteries in terms of catalytic efficiency, cycle life, and engineering applications. For zinc air batteries, the high-entropy alloy catalyst has synergistically enhanced the dual-functional catalytic activity, achieved a cycle life breakthrough of 10,000 times, and stably operated in a wider temperature range. For aluminum air batteries, the optimization of air cathode has been focused, and the mechanical stability has been improved and electrochemical degradation has been suppressed by optimizing the gas diffusion layer, catalyst layer, and electrolyte management.

Circulating technology is building a supply system of "city mine". Resource circulating technology is transforming waste into strategic reserve. The subsidiary of Ningde Times, Bao Pu Recycling, has independently developed the directional recycling technology, which has increased the lithium recovery rate to 91% and the comprehensive recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese to 99.6%; Green Weim has developed the high and low temperature catalytic activation "primary chemical" technology, lattice repair technology, ultra-precision directional extraction technology and endogenous aluminum fluorine adsorption purification technology, etc., to achieve the "performance repair" and material remanufacturing of failed nickel cobalt tungsten elements, and can recover 90% of lithium from old ternary lithium batteries. China has built a recycling network covering 12,000 outlets, and the scale of power battery regeneration materials in 2025 can reach 400,000 tons, which is equivalent to the creation of a global fifth lithium mine. This "mining-consumption-regeneration" closed loop changes the scarcity of resources from geological constraints to technical solvable equations.

It can be seen that technological innovation will reshape the global resource power pattern. Resource countries will be forced to adjust their resource policies due to breakthroughs in recycling and substitution technologies, and traditional resource bargaining power will be weakened; industrial layout shows a "dual-track" feature, where enterprises ensure resource supply while accelerating technological substitution; technological advantages will also be transformed into a battle for standard setting.

PART.03

Work hard to achieve a higher level of resource management.

Our country is facing major challenges and unique opportunities in this transformation. It is imperative to combine our own advantages, continuously strengthen technological innovation, promote national standards to the world, strengthen the "technology-resource" exchange cooperation, and quickly build a resource security system dominated by technology to achieve a higher level of resource management.

On the technical breakthrough level, efforts should be made to build a self-reliant and controllable system of key core technologies. It is suggested to integrate the forces of industry, university and research institutes, focus on the security of industrial chains, and arrange national-level technical breakthrough special projects around the whole chain from exploration to recycling, focusing on breaking through the "bottleneck" links such as the efficient use of low-grade ore, deep-sea equipment manufacturing, and alternative material research and development. By systematically arranging basic research, applied research and industrialization demonstration, a number of original results with independent intellectual property rights should be formed as soon as possible, and the ability to ensure China's resource security should be fundamentally improved.

At the standard-setting level, we will accelerate the process of bringing Chinese standards to international level. We will fully play our technological advantages in rare earth separation, battery recycling and other fields, actively participate in and take the lead in the formulation of international standards, and establish a standard system that is in line with China's national conditions and has international competitiveness. We will focus on promoting the "going out" of standards for green development and recycling of resources, creating a brand of Chinese standards, and enhancing China's right and voice in the formulation of rules in the global governance system of resources.

At the international cooperation level, we need to innovate and build a new model of mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation. Through technology output, capacity cooperation, and joint research and development, we need to establish a closer partnership with resource-rich countries. We need to focus on promoting the "technology for resources" cooperation model, transform China's technological advantages in the development, processing, and utilization of mineral resources into advantages in resource acquisition, and build a new global resource supply chain with complementary advantages and shared risks, to achieve a higher level of open cooperation.

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