SunSirs: Inverted Domestic-Import Price Spread and Stalemate in Supply and Demand Keep Coal Market Volatile at High Levels

In late April, the domestic coal market exhibited a unique pattern characterized by firm import coal prices, stable domestic coal prices, an inverted domestic-import price spread, and a stalemate in both supply and demand. Amidst a confluence of factors—including tight export supplies from Indonesia, high international freight rates, stable domestic production, and power plants’ essential procurement needs coupled with resistance to high prices—coal prices have generally remained volatile at elevated levels, with the supplementary effect of imports on the domestic market significantly weakened. Drawing on Business Society’s benchmark price as of 22 April, the General Administration of Customs’ 2026 import and export data, and recent prevailing industry views, the logic underlying the transmission of domestic and imported coal prices is outlined below.

I. Price Trends for Core Products

On 22 April, the SunSirs coking coal benchmark price stood at RMB1,483.75 per ton, down 1.98% from RMB 1,513.75 per ton on 1 April, but up 15.23% from RMB 1,287.50 per ton on 1 March.

On 22 April, the coking coal benchmark price stood at RMB 1,436.25 per ton, up 3.23% from RMB 1,391.25 per ton on 1 April and up 12.16% from RMB 1,280.00 per ton on 1 March. 

On 22 April, the reference price for thermal coal was RMB 685 per ton, a slight decline from RMB 690 per ton on 1 April, but an increase of 3.79% from RMB 660 per ton on 1 March.

Regarding imported coal, the FOB quotation for Indonesian 3,800 kcal/kg coal for May shipment by bulk carrier stands at US$62–64 per ton; in the second half of April, the Indonesian Official Benchmark Price (HBA) for the 3,800 kcal/kg grade rose by 8.7%; Bidding prices for 3,800 kcal/kg imported coal at power stations in South China stood at RMB 556–567 per ton, resulting in a price differential of RMB 50–80 per ton compared to domestic coal of the same calorific value, with import procurement costs remaining persistently high.

II. Core Factors Behind Price Fluctuations in Domestic and Imported Coal

1. Imported Coal: Tightening Supply + Rising Freight Rates Make Prices Prone to Rise but Unlikely to Fall

The firmness of imported coal prices is underpinned by multiple external factors. As a major supplier, Indonesia prioritizes meeting domestic power plant demand for most of its supply, resulting in persistently tight export resources; coupled with active procurement by Southeast Asian buyers, mine operators’ quotations remain at high levels. In the second half of April, Indonesia’s HBA benchmark prices were raised across the board, further consolidating the floor for imported coal prices. High international freight rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions have jointly driven up the landed costs of imported coal. With current import quotations remaining firm, the landed price of low-calorific coal in South China has already surpassed that of domestic coal, resulting in a pronounced price inversion. This has led to a significant cooling of end-user procurement sentiment, with frequent instances of tenders going unsold.

2. Domestic Coal: Stable Production + Underpinned by Essential Demand; Market Remains Steady

Domestic coal supply continues to be released steadily, with coal mines in major producing regions operating normally and raw coal output remaining at high levels, effectively ensuring domestic market supply. On the demand side, procurement is primarily driven by essential purchases from power stations; the steady recovery of industrial production has boosted electricity demand, providing stable support for coal. However, downstream buyers remain strongly averse to high-priced supplies, with procurement primarily centred on long-term contracts supplemented by spot purchases, resulting in relatively subdued market transactions. Guided by policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, price fluctuations for domestic coal have been kept under control, with overall stability prevailing—a stark contrast to the high prices of imported coal.

3. Price Inversion: Weakened Import Supplementation, Domestic Trade Dominates the Market

Currently, there is a marked price inversion between imported and domestic coal, with the cost-effectiveness of imported coal having declined significantly, leading to a shift in domestic procurement towards domestic coal. The role of imported coal in supplementing the domestic market has weakened considerably, with pricing power returning more to domestic supply and demand fundamentals. This price inversion between domestic and imported coal has constrained the growth of import volumes, strengthened the independence of the domestic coal market, and resulted in more stable price movements.

III. Official Customs Import and Export Data for 2026

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 39.059 million tons of coal and lignite in March 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and a month-on-month rise of 26.2%; cumulative imports for the first quarter stood at 116.28 million tons, up 1.3% year-on-year. Of this total, thermal coal imports in March amounted to 25.924 million tons, marking an 18% increase month-on-month but an 8% decrease year-on-year. Cumulative exports of coal and lignite from January to March totaled 1.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.

In terms of structure, Indonesia remains the largest source of imports, with thermal coal imports from Indonesia accounting for 59.2% of the total in March. Due to adjustments in Indonesia’s export policies and high international prices, the year-on-year growth in import volumes during the first quarter was limited; the month-on-month rebound in March was primarily driven by restocking following the holiday period, with the overall import trend stabilizing.

IV. Market Landscape and Impact on the Industry Chain

The current coal market presents a pattern characteried by “external strength and internal stability, price inversion, and a stalemate between supply and demand”. High import coal prices provide indirect support to the domestic market, but are unlikely to drive domestic coal prices up substantially; domestic coal remains firm amid ample supply and stable demand, with limited room for movement in either direction. In terms of the industrial chain, coking coal prices are fluctuating with a downward bias, influenced by negotiations over coke price increases; thermal coal, underpinned by long-term contracts and underlying demand, is showing a relatively stable trend. High prices have led to sluggish trading in imported coal, whilst domestic coal enterprises are shipping smoothly, with inventories maintained at reasonable levels.

V. Market Outlook

In the short term, the coal market is expected to continue its pattern of high-level fluctuations and a stalemate. Imported coal, supported by Indonesian policy and freight rates, is likely to rise but unlikely to fall; domestic coal, with ample supply and stable demand, will remain largely stable, whilst the inverted price differential pattern persists.

Overall, the coal market is unlikely to exhibit a one-sided trend in the short term. The inverted domestic-import price differential and the stalemate in both supply and demand will dominate the market, with prices primarily fluctuating at high levels. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of imported coal transactions and the pace of changes in domestic demand.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.