SunSirs: Rapeseed Meal Prices Under Downward Pressure; Short-Term Trend Remains Weak and Volatile

According to data from SunSirs' "Spot Connect" service: on April 13, the average market price for rapeseed meal was 2,554 RMB/ton; by April 16, the average price had fallen to 2,542 RMB/ton—a decline of 0.47%.

Supply Side: Imports are ample, and supply pressure is easing. Following a significant reduction in import tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, previously delayed shipments and newly ordered rapeseed cargoes have been arriving at ports in concentrated batches. Consequently, the operating rates at domestic oil mills have rebounded. The supply of rapeseed meal has shifted from tight to ample; while port inventories remain at relatively low levels, they have begun to accumulate slightly, directly dampening the momentum for a rebound in spot prices.

Demand Side: The peak season has not yet arrived, and support from essential demand remains insufficient. The aquaculture season has not yet fully commenced, and temperatures in southern regions have been rising slowly. Feeding activities for fish and shrimp remain in their initial stages, resulting in low actual pickup volumes and weak spot market turnover. Market expectations regarding peak-season demand have yet to translate into substantial purchasing activity.

Sector Linkage: Tracking downward pressure across the protein meal complex. Soybean meal prices have continued to retreat, weighed down by abundant global soybean harvests, concentrated arrivals of imported cargoes, and sluggish domestic demand from the livestock sector. As a member of the protein meal complex, rapeseed meal has largely tracked the weak performance of soybean meal, lacking independent market dynamics of its own.

Amid expectations of ample supply, rapeseed meal prices are likely to continue their weak and volatile trend. If the peak season for aquaculture feeding arrives as scheduled, it may trigger a temporary rebound in prices; otherwise, the price center of gravity may continue to drift lower.

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