SunSirs: Cost Support Remained Robust, and Sentiment in the Silicomanganese Market to Hold Up Prices Was Strong

Price trend

According to SunSirs data, silicomanganese futures traded steadily last week. Driven by strong cost support, the silicomanganese market demonstrated solid underlying stability. With current production costs remaining at elevated levels, manufacturers are keen to hold firm on prices and show little willingness to sell at discounted rates. Data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System indicates that as of last weekend, market quotes for silicomanganese (spec: FeMn68Si18) in the Ningxia region ranged from approximately 5,950 to 6,000 RMB/ton. The average market price stood at 5,936.00 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.94%.

Fundamental Analysis

Supply Side: Last week, overall production enthusiasm for silicomanganese in the northern producing regions remained reasonably active. Plant operations proceeded relatively smoothly, with most manufacturers prioritizing the fulfillment and delivery of previously secured orders; only a few isolated enterprises were still carrying out scheduled furnace maintenance, resulting in a limited overall scale of production cuts. Manufacturers adopted a cautious stance regarding shipments, showing no immediate inclination to offer price concessions to expedite sales, and largely opted to wait and observe future market trends. Following the resumption of operations at a major facility in Ningxia, overall production output in the northern region saw an increase.

Production activity in the southern region remains under sustained pressure; dampened by low-trading futures markets and insufficient profit margins in the spot market, enterprises currently exhibit weak motivation to resume operations. With electricity prices in the South showing no immediate signs of easing—compounded by persistently high forward costs for manganese ore—overall production cost pressures remain acute. Consequently, the regional operating rate is not expected to see any significant improvement in April.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide stood at 28.9% last week—an increase of 1.1% from the previous week—while the average daily output rose by 825 tons to reach 24,015 tons.

Upstream Costs: Negotiations regarding the second round of coke price hikes remain ongoing; should the increase ultimately be implemented, chemical coke prices may follow suit.

The manganese ore market is experiencing slight fluctuations and mixed performance. On one hand, downstream producers—facing production cuts and financial losses—are exerting downward pressure on manganese ore procurement prices. On the other hand, disruptive factors persist on the supply side, and international market benchmarks remain at elevated levels. As previously acquired low-priced inventories are gradually being shipped out, and with expectations of some downstream restocking ahead of the upcoming holidays, manganese ore suppliers are reluctant to offer further price concessions; consequently, the number of lower-end price quotes observed in the market has begun to diminish over the past two days.

According to data, current manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port are quoted as follows: Australian lump ore at 44–47 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonate ore at 41.5–42.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese lump ore at 45–45.5 RMB/MTU. At Qinzhou Port, Australian lump ore is quoted at 45.5 RMB/MTU, semi-carbonate ore at 39–40 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese lump ore at 44.5 RMB/MTU.

Regarding demand: Recently, the pace of silicomanganese tenders by steel mills has slowed slightly. The steel procurement prices released thus far are largely concentrated in the range of 6,200–6,250 RMB/ton, as the market awaits the launch of a new round of silicomanganese tenders by a major steel mill in the northern region.

Regarding steel mill tenders, it is reported that Changshu Longteng Special Steel plans to tender for 4,000 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the deadline for price submissions set for 10:00 AM on April 17. Puyang Steel plans to tender for 510 tons of silicomanganese alloy, with the deadline for price submissions set for 12:00 PM on April 17. Jinshenglan Group has launched a new round of silicomanganese tenders; the planned procurement volume for this round is 4,300 tons—specifically, 900 tons for delivery to Hubei, 500 tons to Jiangsu, 1,700 tons to Yunfu, and 1,200 tons to Heyuan—with the deadline for bid submissions set for 2:00 PM on April 16.

Market Outlook

Overall, the silicomanganese market has transitioned from a phase of panic-driven decline to a stage of volatile bottom-building. While support at the market bottom is gradually strengthening, further upward movement remains contingent upon updates to key market indicators. SunSirs anticipates that the silicomanganese market will likely maintain its volatile trajectory in the short term; subsequently, bolstered by cost support and supportive policies, it is expected to trend stronger.

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