SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Lower Last Week (April 13–17)

Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, caustic soda prices exhibited a weaker trend last week. The average market price stood at 738 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 724 RMB/ton by the weekend, representing a price decline of 1.9% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 10.51%.

On April 16, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index registered 761 points, remaining unchanged from the previous day. This figure represents a 64.24% decline from the cycle's historical high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and a 7.64% increase from the cycle's historical low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle period spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market analysis

According to SunSirs' commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices trended downward last week. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda ranged from approximately 650 to 760 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan ranging from roughly 1,000 to 1,050 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, prices in Inner Mongolia underwent consolidation, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda—calculated on a 100% basis—hovering around 2,200 to 2,300 RMB/ton. Regarding supply, operating rates rebounded last week following the holiday period; however, inventory reduction among enterprises was negligible, resulting in a trend of accumulating stockpiles. Downstream buyers remained cautious in their purchasing, causing a slowdown in the pace of shipments from manufacturers. Specifically, alumina producers in Shanxi and Henan demonstrated significantly weak enthusiasm for purchasing liquid caustic soda. Consequently, prices in surrounding markets—typified by the liquid caustic soda market in Shandong—continued their downward trajectory last week. With no immediate signs of improvement in the alumina sector, manufacturers were adopting a strong wait-and-see stance last week; spot market transactions remained sparse, leading to a cautious approach toward caustic soda procurement.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that the caustic soda market had trended weakly in the recent period, with prices softening last week. Recently, domestic downstream consumers were largely purchasing on an "as-needed" basis, and demand had not seen any substantial improvement. Caustic soda manufacturers continued to face significant inventory pressure, while downstream buyers remained resistant; the market was characterized by an ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, it is anticipated that caustic soda prices will likely continue to consolidate in the near term, with specific market direction contingent upon actual demand from downstream sectors.

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